Veneto, construction beyond the bonus hangover

Now that the picture is - finally - becoming clearer, companies are reckoning with the end of the bonuses that drove, and in some cases drugged, the construction market. There is still some damage on the ground, from the rise in raw materials that has seen prices double or triple (e.g. in the case of coats) to building sites where work carried out in a hurry now has to be taken back in hand. Demographic change is also part of this complexity.

Nomisma has put the sector under the lens in its report "The evolution of housing demand in Veneto: knowing demand to guide supply", commissioned by Confartigianato Veneto. The figures show that in 2023 there were 63,000 home purchases and sales in the region, 8.6% of the Italian total. The peak of transactions, both regional and national, was reached in 2022. Over the past 10 years," explain Elena Molignoni, head of Real Estate, and Marco Govoni, senior advisor, "average nominal house prices have fallen between -17% in Vicenza and -7.6% in Padua in the markets of the provincial capitals. On the contrary, prices in the average of the provincial municipalities show greater resilience. In the markets of the provincial capitals, over the next three years, prices are expected to increase slightly in Treviso, Verona and, above all, in Padua and Venice (more than 2% per year). Almost zero variations, instead, in Belluno, Rovigo and Vicenza. New homes in the region, from 2019 to 2023, will go from 9,000 concessions issued to just under 6,700.

The population declines, but the recomposition by age group changes lifestyles and housing preferences: fragmented households activate the housing replacement market, demand shifts towards smaller housing solutions and there is a demand expressed by the elderly population for 'age-friendly housing'.

The housing stock amounts to 2.6 million dwellings of which 584 thousand are unoccupied. Of the 2.046 million dwellings occupied by resident households, 79% are owned, 15.8% rented and 5.3% in usufruct, free use and other titles. Average rents for rented dwellings have been rising over the decade and particularly in recent years, driven by demand pressure against a lack of supply. It is mostly the weaker segments of the population, young people, single-income families, immigrants, precarious workers and in general families with fewer economic possibilities who turn to the rental market. Average house rents in the provincial capitals have not changed much over the last 10 years, except in Verona and Rovigo, where they have risen by around 20%.

Through 800 interviews collected among owners, Nomisma draws a picture of the future: for two families out of three, the home only needs minor ordinary maintenance work, while 10% of owners (165 thousand families) consider extraordinary maintenance work to be necessary, aimed primarily at improving energy efficiency (73%), followed by home comfort (47%). To be noted, however, is the drop in the average expenditure incurred by households taking action to improve efficiency: from around 32 thousand euro in the past, it has fallen to 24 thousand for those who might take action in the future, a sign of less willingness on the part of those who have not yet started work. And the discriminating factor seems to be the availability of tax bonuses: for almost half of the households surveyed, adequate incentives could be the lever for planning interventions.