Veneto, manufacturing without signs of recovery

Entrepreneurs' forecasts for the rest of the year reveal a cautious climate of confidence. 47% of companies expect an increase in production, 36% expect stability and 16% fear a downturn.

"At the start of 2025, the stalemate in Veneto manufacturing that has been going on for almost two years continues," comments Unioncamere del Veneto President Antonio Santocono, "in which the recovery remains fragile and uneven. Consolidation will depend on the resilience of demand, particularly domestic demand, and on the ability of companies to react to a still unstable international context, characterised by trade tensions and growing geopolitical uncertainty. As a chamber of commerce system, we have a duty to support businesses in this delicate phase. It is essential to strengthen strategic supply chains, support the digital transition, and accelerate the processes of internationalisation and diversification. In parallel, it is necessary to take action to reduce bureaucratic constraints and simplify access to support tools, so as to encourage investment in new markets and technologies. Today, more than ever, we need a shared effort to face the challenges ahead, relaunch the competitiveness of our production system, and build the foundations for lasting, sustainable and inclusive growth for our territory'.

An in-depth analysis is dedicated to the province's territory. With a seasonally adjusted change in industrial production of -0.4% in the first quarter of 2025, the data for the Padua area outlines a situation of substantial stagnation, as at the regional level. The year-on-year change is down by 0.8%. While domestic turnover is holding up compared to the same period in 2024 - +1.9% - the picture of turnover generated by exports, which is exposed to the dynamics of German manufacturing, is negative: compared to the beginning of 2024, the first quarter of 2025 marks -4.5%.

Despite the slowdown in production and the uncertain scenarios on international markets, the overall trend change in orders remained positive (+1.9%), sustained in particular by requests from abroad, which marked a +2.4%: a figure that must, however, also be interpreted in the context of the period in which the survey was carried out, in days marked by news of possible imminent duties that may have pushed local companies to close supply contracts and commercial partnerships to 'anticipate' possible future scenarios.

Despite the many uncertainties, the report indicates, cautious optimism remains prevalent. Approximately half of the manufacturing companies in Padua expect an increase in both production and turnover in the next three months, percentages dropping to 44% for foreign orders and 47% for domestic orders.