The European Council

EU Summit: Meloni says, ‘Industry at risk with the ETS’. Then a compromise. Seven-day extension of the Schengen travel ban with Spain

Italia, together with the Visegrad Group, has secured a commitment to assess all the impacts of ETS2, but not a postponement. Migrants: the discussions with Madrid and Italy’s call to put a stop to pull factors

from our correspondent in Brussels Manuela Perrone

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GIORGIA MELONI PREMIER CONSIGLIO EUROPEO 7146

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

5' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The ‘frugal’ states’ stance on the ETS. The clash with Spain over immigration. The additional flexibility linked to the inflation ‘emergency’, raised solely in conjunction with Greece. Giorgia Meloni went on the offensive on the first day of a European Council in Brussels, widely regarded as ‘difficult’. Even more so for Italia. And overnight it accepted a compromise (meagre) on the ETS, namely a commitment to ensure ‘a well-functioning carbon market’ and, above all, to ‘update all the impacts of ETS2, particularly with regard to its configuration and the relevant safeguards’. It is not the postponement of the entry into force that had been requested, but neither is it silence on the matter.

The flexibility challenge

The Prime Minister first raised with the leaders the issue of the additional flexibility called for in the name of a correct interpretation of the ‘relevant factors’ for compliance with the expenditure rule at the heart of the Stability Pact. Italian diplomatic sources reported that Ursula von der Leyen did not comment, but that ‘the Commission’s services are nevertheless examining the dossier’. The situation is complicated both by the need not to appear to be backing down on public finances at a time of market turmoil and, above all, by Italy’s other request to be able to use the VAT windfall to alleviate the burden of the high cost of living on households and businesses, rather than allocating it to debt reduction.

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ETS, alliance with the Visegrad countries

But it was over energy costs and the proposed revision of the ETS, put forward by the Czech Andrej Babiš, that the debate flared up. Meloni finds her only allies – particularly on the postponement of ETS2 – in the Visegrad Group: the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. Together with Babiš, she presented two charts for discussion. The first, based on the European Environment Agency’s (EEA) EU ETS Data Viewer, plots the downward trend in CO₂ allowance emissions against the rising price since 2020. ‘ETS emissions are plummeting, but European industry is losing ground,’ reads the commentary. However, critics – who are opposed to extending a helping hand to those whose energy mix remains heavily reliant on gas and oil – believe this demonstrates that the mechanism is working: as the supply of emission allowances decreases, the price rises. It adds that suspicions of speculation have been refuted by ESMA, the European Securities and Markets Authority.

The alarm over deindustrialisation

The second chart, sourced from Eurostat, shows the declining share of industry (excluding construction) in total European GDP since 2021, with chemicals and fertilisers at -31 per cent, steel at -16 per cent and glass at -10 per cent. “Europe is becoming deindustrialised, especially in energy-intensive sectors,” is the assessment. In Meloni’s words, during a three-hour debate – which was suspended and then resumed – this became a plea to stop the train before it derails, before industry is ‘slaughtered’.

The cold shoulder from France and Germany

Friedrich Merz and Emmanuel Macron remained non-committal. They did not launch an attack like Denmark, Sweden, Finland and the Netherlands, but neither did they support the Italian position. Whilst the Council was debating the multiannual budget (with the conditions set by Italia and Romania alongside the 17 ‘Friends of Cohesion’), news also emerged of an acceleration in the Franco-German agreement on the future of the automotive sector – an agreement that excludes Italy.

The final compromise

But negotiations continued, amidst heated exchanges. This led to the final text of the conclusions, which remains vague. It emphasises the need to ensure ‘as a matter of urgency a well-functioning, transparent and predictable carbon market, to provide effective protection against carbon leakage, to reduce the volatility of the carbon price and to mitigate its impact on electricity prices’. Yet the same text cautions: all this must be done ‘whilst preserving the essential role of the ETS in addressing climate change and the energy transition through a market-based price signal for carbon emissions that guides investment and innovation’. In short, no U-turn. And no acceptance, at least for now, of the prospect of ‘temporary exceptions’ such as those mentioned by Italia, which had been granted to the Iberian Peninsula.

No to postponing the ETS2, yes to an impact assessment

The rejection of suspensions or further reforms beyond those already underway, because – as the Nordic countries have firmly emphasised – those who have invested must not be penalised, and those who have not taken steps to phase out fossil fuels must not be given an advantage. There was also clear opposition to the idea of postponing the entry into force of ETS2 beyond 2028 from those who have already set in motion plans to extend the ETS to road transport and the heating of buildings. Here, mediation proved even more complicated. It concluded with a call for the Commission to ‘update the assessment of all the impacts of ETS2, in particular with regard to its design and the relevant safeguards’. A faint glimmer of hope, which Italia will try to cling to.

Rome-Madrid clash: Schengen rules suspended for a further 7 days

Tensions rose yesterday, even with Spain under the leadership of the socialist Pedro Sánchez. This came on the day the suspension of the Schengen Agreement – imposed by Italia following the events in Ceuta – was due to expire. Until the evening, the decision on a possible further extension remained pending. Then, this morning, sources at Palazzo Chigi reported that, following discussions between Rome and Madrid, Italia had decided to extend the temporary border controls on crossings with Spain by seven days, ‘so as to bring them into line with the expiry of the Spanish measures’. Over the course of next week, “the respective interior ministers will work together to assess ‘alternative’ cooperation measures”.

Immigration: a focus on mass arrivals

It was precisely the Ceuta case, however, that brought Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark together once again; this morning, they convened the informal group on migration ahead of the dedicated working session. There were 18 countries present: in addition to the three countries and the European Commission, these included Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Croatia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia and Sweden. The discussion centred on ‘the prevention of mass irregular arrivals, the exploitation of migrants and the implementation of the new European regulatory framework’.

Meloni: ‘Monitor the EU’s external borders’

Meloni emphasised the need ‘to maintain a high level of vigilance at the Union’s external borders, focusing on preventing irregular migration and the associated security risks’. This approach, centred on ‘responsibility’, aims to foster a shared commitment to avoiding the pull factor, that is to say the ‘attraction’ effect generated by policies that could send signals of vulnerability to human trafficking networks, as (the implicit subtext suggests) happened in the Spanish exclave in Morocco.

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The meeting with Abascal

Yesterday, however, Meloni decided to meet the leader of Vox Santiago Abascal, in Brussels for the Patriots’ summit. A “fruitful face-to-face meeting with my friend Giorgia Meloni”, Abascal wrote on social media, urging Spain (which is set to hold a snap election on 29 November) to follow Italia’s right-wing path, as it is now “a stronger and more respected nation”.

Today’s focus is on Ukraine: the issue of the single negotiator

This morning we’ll be looking at the Ukraine dossier, with our guest Zelensky. Meloni will reiterate the urgent need for a single negotiator for Europe or a framework legitimised by a clear mandate. Meanwhile, in the US, Trump’s spokesperson has responded to the rejection of the agreement with Putin on Russian diesel: ‘It’s a great deal to bring prices down.’ After all, at Palazzo Chigi, any further attacks from the tycoon have been factored in.

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