Automotive

Volkswagen, quarter in the red. Cash alarm. Antlitz: cash flow close to zero

Estimates confirmed, but a year ago the Group was in profit by 1.6 billion. Porsche, the tariffs effect and electric vehicle launches are weighing heavily. The Nexperia (chip) emergency operational halt also looms large

by Alberto Annicchiarico

 Produzione della VW Golf VII nello stabilimento Volkswagen di Wolfsburg. Copyright: Thomas Trutschel/ picture alliance/photothek

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

The Volkswagen Group closed the third quarter of 2025 with a negative operating result of EUR 1.3 billion, compared to a profit of EUR 2.8 billion in the same period of 2024. This is the first loss since the start of the pandemic. After six consecutive quarters of declining profits, the continent's leading manufacturer posted a net loss of EUR 1.07 billion in the third quarter compared to a profit of EUR 1.6 billion a year ago. This is the first loss since spring 2020, at the height of the Covid-19 crisis. This occurred despite a 2.3% year-on-year increase in sales to EUR 80.3 billion, driven by a 1% increase in global deliveries.

In comparison, the group posted a profit of EUR 1.6 billion in the same period last year.In the first nine months of the year, operating profit fell by 58% to EUR 5.4 billion, on revenues that grew slightly by 0.6% to EUR 238.7 billion. Net profit stood at EUR 3.4 billion (-61.5%), while the operating margin shrank to 2.3% (5.4% a year ago).

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The quarter was significantly impacted by US trade tariffs and the restructuring of the Porsche brand, which together generated extraordinary expenses of EUR 7.5 billion, including goodwill write-downs and realignment of product strategy. Theramp-up of electric models, which are characterised by lower margins than conventional engines, also weighed heavily.

In detail, the Porsche brand, the flagship of the sports and luxury car division, posted an operating loss of 228 million (profit of 3.8 billion in 2024), with revenues down 7.9% to 23.8 billion. The main causes: the slowdown in China, costs related to the strategic repositioning on electric cars, and the impact of US tariffs.

However, for the full year 2025 the leading European car manufacturer confirms its forecast of an operating margin of between 2 and 3 per cent, with revenues in line with 2024 and net liquidity in the region of EUR 30 billion. In an increasingly complex global environment, the German group is trying to stay the course, balancing the electric transition with the need for stringent financial discipline. All this under the sword of Damocles of the new chip crisis (see below).

Stability for 'Core' group, flexion for 'Progressive'

The core group brands (Volkswagen, Škoda, SEAT/Cupra, Commercial Vehicles) improved their operating result by 7% to EUR 4.7 billion, with a stable margin at 4.4%, thanks to cost discipline and the implementation of the 'Zukunft Volkswagen' programme. The Progressive division (Audi, Lamborghini, Bentley, Ducati), on the other hand, suffered a 26% drop to EUR 1.55 billion, penalised by tariffs and the postponement of an electric platform for the D segment.

Global deliveries for the nine months were up slightly (+1.2%) to 6.6 million vehicles, driven by Western Europe (+4%) and Latin America (+13%), while China posted -2% and North America -11%.

Nexperia chip situation: operation at risk

The achievement of the financial targets for 2025 depends to a large extent on the availability of semiconductors, in light of the international tensions involvingthe Dutch manufacturer Nexperia. The group has assured that it has sufficient components to keep the German plants running in the short term, but does not rule out possible disruptions beyond next week.

Nexperia, formerly controlled by the Chinese Wingtech Technology, is at the centre of a tug-of-war between the Netherlands and China (with Washington in the background, we will see the effect of the truce after the Trump-Xi Jinping summit): after the Hague seized control of the company, Beijing reacted with a blockade on exports from the company's Chinese sites, triggering fears of a new chip crisis for the European car industry. According to the European association of car manufacturers, Acea, several manufacturers could be forced to suspend production in the coming days.

Volkswagen reiterated that it 'maintains close contact and evaluates alternatives' with Nexperia to ensure security of supply.

Antlitz: 'Cash flow 2025 close to zero, we cannot continue like this'

Regarding rumours of 'cash holes in the billions', cfo and coo Arno Antlitz clarified that 'with EUR 31 billion of net cash in the automotive sector, the position remains solid. However, the 2025 operating cash flow will be close to zero: we cannot continue like this'.

"In the first nine months of the year, we saw a mixed picture," Antlitz continued. "On the one hand, the commercial success of our conventional and electric engines confirms that our product offensive is working: in Europe, one in four electric cars carries a Volkswagen Group brand. On the other hand, the financial result is significantly weaker than in 2024, due to the launch of electric vehicles with lower margins and extraordinary charges of 7.5 billion."

'Excluding these charges,' added Antilitz, 'the group's operating margin would be 5.4%, which is still solid in the current economic environment. However, trade tariffs and negative volume effects will weigh us down by up to EUR 5 billion on an annual basis. That is why we must rigorously implement performance programmes, accelerate efficiency, and fully utilise internal group synergies.

Dividend policy confirmed. Here's why

Finally, dividends. For 2025 'we confirm a dividend policy with a pay out of at least 30 per cent, the count will not include Porsche's goodwill write-down of -2.7 billion,' Antlitz said during the call with analysts.

Asked whether the distribution of cash to shareholders conflicts with the goal of reversing the trend of cash generation, which is expected to be zero in 2025, the German group's CFO emphasised that 'it is not in conflict, if anything it is the opposite: it demonstrates our strength, which we also want shareholders to share in'.

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