The issue of overcapacity

Von der Leyen to Chinese Premier: let's avoid distortions in global trade

The president of the EU Commission asks Beijing to do everything possible to avoid a "possible diversion" of trade from America to Europe. Meanwhile, the EU is preparing to vote on countermeasures to the US duties on steel and aluminium, while the anti-coercion tool, "the bazooka" that would also allow large digital companies to be hit "is still on the table".

from our correspondent Beda Romano

La presidente della Commissione europea Ursula von der Leyen

3' min read

3' min read

BRUSSELS - The trade war launched by the Trump administration on the rest of the world worries far beyond the risks of inflation and recession, linked to the adoption of customs duties. There is concern in Europe that we are witnessing a redirection of trade flows towards the European Union. This issue was at the centre of the telephone conversation between European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Chinese Premier Li Qiang.

In a summary of the conversation, Ms. von der Leyen emphasised China's 'essential role' in avoiding a 'possible diversion' of international trade from America to Europe, particularly 'in sectors where there are already levels of global overcapacity'. More generally, 'China and the EU must strengthen communication and coordination, (...) support free and open trade and investment'.

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The telephone conversation is particularly interesting. While the European Union is keeping the door open for negotiations with Washington, wielding the weapon of counter-duties with wisdom and balance (if only to maintain cohesion between the Twenty-Seven), China has decided to confront the United States head-on, announcing eye-to-eye an increase in its own duties in response to the White House's choices and provoking an escalation in fact. Yesterday, Premier Li stated that 'China is perfectly capable of offsetting negative external effects'.

More generally, the telephone conversation reflects an attempt at rapprochement between Beijing and Brussels at a time when both capitals have poor relations with Washington. China and the EU both have an interest in strengthening their bilateral relations, if only with a view to trade diversification. Not least because the parties have announced a bilateral summit to be held in July to celebrate the 50th anniversary of diplomatic relations.

At the same time, there is a European fear of an invasion of Chinese goods, originally destined for the US. Steel is not the only sector facing overcapacity in China, leading to increased supply, falling prices and repeated company crises. According to the European Chamber of Commerce in Beijing, 51% of the companies polled in a survey believe there is also overcapacity in chemicals, 55% in manufacturing, 56% in pharmaceuticals, and 62% in automobiles.

Tomorrow, Wednesday, meanwhile, the vote by which the Twenty-Seven should approve the European retaliation to the US duties on steel and aluminium will take place as planned. The measures will officially enter into force next week. Also next week, the process of new countermeasures to the US duties against cars will begin. In the meantime, the anti-coercion tool, 'the bazooka' that would allow to hit even large digital companies 'is still on the table', EU spokesman Olof Gill said yesterday.

From Washington, the Trump administration rejected the European idea of zero tariffs on both sides of the Atlantic, relaunching its call for Europe to buy US energy sources to the tune of $350 billion a year. EU spokeswoman Anna Kaisa Itkonen's response was diplomatic, but firm: 'We already buy half of our imported liquefied gas from the US (...) Purchases depend on demand and price'.

On other aspects of a possible negotiation with the US, Brussels was also cold. Washington considers digital regulations, value added tax and phytosanitary standards to be non-tariff barriers, i.e. to be eliminated. 'The definition of these barriers is clear internationally,' said spokesman Gill. 'The DMA and DSA are not part of the issue. VAT is non-negotiable; and we have no intention of compromising' on health or food standards.


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