After the European

Von der Leyen seeks encore, second term closer

Counts reinforce the supremacy of the EPP in Parliament and Macron does not seem to have the strength to indicate an alternative to the European Council

from our correspondent Michele Pignatelli

La presidente della Commissione europea Ursula von der Leyen ( a sinistra) e la premier italiana Giorgia Meloni durante la riunione dei Capi di Stato e di Governo dei Paesi G7 a Borgo Egnazia

3' min read

3' min read

BRUSSELS - Ursula von der Leyen's chances of being reconfirmed as head of the European Commission are growing, even if the unknowns of a parliamentary majority to be enlarged remain, in a context in which the composition and size of the groups are evolving.

The numbers

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What gives the incumbent president a clear advantage are first of all the numbers, which, according to the latest update on the vote to renew the European Parliament, see her party, the EPP, increasingly the clear winner, with 189 seats out of 720 compared to 176 in the previous legislature. And new MEPs could be added. Strengthening her candidacy is then the post-electoral weakness of Emmanuel Macron, the only leader who could have opposed her at the European Council, but who now appears inevitably focused on internal affairs, after the decision to call early elections on 30 June.

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It should be remembered that the appointment of the Commission President is a two-step process: first he is nominated by the European Council, then he is voted on by the European Parliament.

Possible alliances

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On Tuesday von del Leyen spoke at the closed-door meeting of the MEPs of the European People's Party, reiterating the concepts expressed immediately after the polls closed: that is, the incumbent said that in order to be reconfirmed, she expects the support of the Socialists and Liberals of Renew, the starting point for any discussion, but that it is important to build as large a majority as possible.

A willingness not to close the doors also dictated by the experience of the previous legislature: if in fact the European People's Party has strengthened, the 'Ursula majority' (with Socialists and Liberals) is less solid and now counts on 403 MEPs: 42 over the threshold of 361 (50% plus one), while in 2019 it had a margin of 64 votes. And even then it managed to gain confidence by only nine votes, with the support of MPs from outside the majority.

Two roads appear to be possible for von der Leyen today, both not without uncertainties: to look to the group of Conservatives and Reformists (Ecr) or to the Greens. In the first case, the president of the Commission would seriously risk - she has already been warned in this regard - alienating the support of the Socialists and Liberals and therefore seems rather oriented towards seeking not the support of the entire parliamentary group, but of individual parties belonging to it, such as Fratelli d'Italia. In the second case, it would have to reconcile the demands of the Greens with the green brakes of a large part of the EPP itself, from stopping combustion engines to agriculture.

On Tuesday, not only the Populars, but also other parliamentary groups held their first meetings at the Europarliament to draw up strategies and new entries. And it was precisely the Greens who explicitly declared themselves in favour of joining the majority.

'We are willing to talk and give our support' to Ursula von der Leyen for a second term,' said Bas Eickhout, in a press point with the group's other Sptizenkandidat, Terry Reintke, but 'only if we are part of the coalition'. Subject to the Greens' red lines, 'the implementation of the Green Deal and the protection of democracy'.

Among the other groups, representatives of four new parties joined the Conservatives and Reformists, bringing the Ecr delegation to 77 MEPs, only two fewer than the Liberals.

Towards the European Council

On the other front, that of the European Council, an informal dinner between the leaders will be held as early as Monday 17 June. Under discussion will not only be Ursula von der Leyen's encore, but also the other 'top jobs', the top positions in the EU institutions.

According to Politico, which cites anonymous sources, an agreement in principle is emerging on the complete package, which, in addition to von der Leyen at the Commission, would see Portuguese Socialist Antonio Costa as President of the European Council, Maltese People's Party Roberta Metsola confirmed as head of the Europarliament and Estonian Liberal Kaja Kallas as High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy.

Only rumours for the time being, which will have to be confirmed at the informal meeting on the 17th, or at the subsequent European Council convened for 27 and 28 June.


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