War and energy shock, consumption sting: up to 963 euro less per household and risk of stagnation

The tertiary market sector has established itself as the engine of the Italian economy: between 1995 and 2025 it created almost 4 million jobs, compared to a decline in industry and public administration, and contributes almost 53% of the national added value.

Beyond the shock of the war, there remain a few decades-long nodes that have led to a gradual collapse in growth: from +4.7% in the 1966-1980 period to +1.8% between 1981 and 2007, to zero in the last two decades, while the tax burden has risen from 25.3% to 42.2%, squeezing investment and development.

Confcommercio points the finger at the 'fiscocracy', the excess of taxes and bureaucracy that 'reduces the growth horizon, penalises innovation and limits the appetite for entrepreneurial risk'.

The demographic winter is weighing on everything, for our country has lost about 9 million young people under 30 compared to the 1980s (they were almost 25 million today they are about 16 mili0ni), with direct effects on production capacity. There is the issue of inadequate skills compared to the demands of the labour market: 'Businesses are struggling to find people, but above all to find the right skills,' Sangalli added, 'and this is a risk that is destined to grow in the coming years.

Next to young people, the othermain lever to counter the decline is "the increase in female labour participation: an alignment to European levels would, in fact, allow about 290,000 more employed women per year for the next decade".

Confcommercio's contractual system altogether covers about 5 million workers. The tertiary contract alone signed by Confcommercio covers almost 2.5 million workers and is the most applied contract in Italia. The system is weakened by internal distortions such as contractual dumping: in the tertiary sector about 154 thousand workers are involved in less protective contracts, with losses of up to 8 thousand euro per year, absence of welfare and negative effects on competition and productivity.

 The phenomenon also generates an impact on public finance, with lower tax and social security revenues of approximately EUR 560 million in 2025. The phenomenon also generates an impact on public finance, with lower tax and social security revenues of approximately EUR 560 million in 2025

In view of the government's announced intervention on 1 May in support of poor labour, Confcommercio proposes to introduce some principles to counter contractual dumping, to be applied to measure all the organisations representing companies:the historicity of the organisation; the presence of a welfare system; the number of labour relations regulated by contracts; membership in international organisations.

'It has finally been realised that the dumping phenomenon is a social scourge that must be resolved,' Sangalli added, 'it is a social battle that requires everyone's contribution. Certainly not unilateral interventions, dropped from above. It is unacceptable to tolerate that in a civilised country there is room for contracts that pay workers less, distort competition and create disparities between companies and between workers. A confrontation with the government is urgently needed'.