Wars and price rises, six out of ten Italians expect a recession in the coming months

US military action in Iran is seen above all as a choice dictated by economic interests (44%), but also as an unjustified act of aggression (27%) and one that risks triggering an even wider conflict in the Middle East (24%). 70% of those interviewed believe that there was still room for diplomacy before the intervention, while the main fears concern the possible involvement of NATO, and therefore of Italia (35%) and the risk of a war dragging on for months or years without a foreseeable outcome (30%).

Concerns about the economic impact of the conflict, expressed by 90% of the respondents, are significant. In particular, more than 1 in 2 (56%) fear that the increase in petrol and utility bills will become unsustainable; 1 in 3 (34%) expect an increase in inflation with a consequent reduction in their purchasing power. Concerning the evolution of the conflict, the future scenario that worries most is that the new regime will be even harsher and more anti-Western than the previous one (34%; 40% for the over 64s) and that the war will end in a deadlock, leaving all tensions intact (26%).

In the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, 61% of Italians consider Russia to be an aggressor (34% think it has imperialist designs on all the nations of the former USSR and 2% think it poses a threat to Europe). However, 25% believe that Russia has been pushed into action by NATO's expansion to the East. It is worth noting that, compared to the start of the war, there is a growing inclination towards a negotiated solution: 48% of those interviewed say they are in favour of pushing for peace even at the cost of territorial concessions (23%) and reducing the sending of arms (25%), compared to 43% who maintain a sharper support for Ukraine. Concern about an escalation is also strong: 69% are worried about a possible extension of the conflict to NATO countries: in particular, 15% fear that Europe could be the next theatre of war, while more than 1 in 2 respondents (54%) consider it a worrying and possible scenario.

The Israeli intervention in Gaza receives a very clear condemnation: 50% of Italians define it as a "massacre" of the Palestinian civilian population and 33% as a disproportionate military campaign that causes too many civilian victims. The report also shows how in the last two years the opinion of Israel, which remained negative for 22% of those interviewed, has worsened for more than 6 out of 10 interviewees (65%), with 1 in 3 (36%) going so far as to consider it a colonialist state that violates human rights. At the same time, there is a growing fear of direct consequences in Europe: 83% say they are concerned about the risk of the conflict in the Middle East fuelling radicalisation resulting in new terrorist attacks.