The word from the manager: Ns Partners

'We believe in ride sharing where Uber is the leader'

'Other interesting companies include Alphabet, Asml, Roche and Cummins'

Pierre Mouton, responsabile delle strategie Equity Long-Only di NS Partners

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Pierre Mouton, Head of Equity Long-Only Strategies at Ns Partners explains his view of the stock markets, pointing out that further growth is possible, albeit in a more risky situation than in the past.

In recent months we have witnessed a slowdown in global growth but also positive signs on the consumption and labour market side. How do you interpret this macro picture and what are the main drivers for equity markets in the coming months?

The economic context is not particularly rosy, but it is not negative either. Consumption is unevenly affected by the current economic situation: while low-income households tend to limit their spending, wealthier ones continue to be in good shape. Looking ahead, the two main factors that will most influence the macroeconomic picture will be employment and interest rate developments.

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IL TITOLO IN BORSA

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What impact has the just-filed shutdown left on the markets?

The US government shutdown, the longest in history, had a relatively modest impact on the markets. According to Congressional Budget Office (Cbo) estimates, the net effect of the shutdown on the economy will only be 0.04% of GDP, with a negative impact in the fourth quarter of 2025 and a recovery in the first quarter of 2026. In any case, this is a marginal and insignificant impact on equity markets.

 

Central banks' monetary policies remain the focus of attention. How are you reading the Fed's and ECB's moves? And what impact do you foresee on the risk appetite of equity investors?

The ECB seems to have reached the end of its tightening cycle, with rates expected to remain at around 2.0% for the foreseeable future, in line with inflation hovering around that level.

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve is facing a difficult environment, in which rising tariffs have pushed up inflation expectations while weighing on GDP growth. This creates a dilemma for the Fed, which faces a delicate balance between containing inflation and supporting the labour market.

Following the old adage "Don't fight the Fed", we expect future monetary policy to have a favourable effect on capital markets, unless there is political interference in the Fed's independence.

I COMPARABLES

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After the highs reached by some indices, do you think there is still room for further expansion or is the market entering a consolidation phase?

Until we see a turning point in the huge investments dedicated to the AI infrastructure, we believe there is still room for further expansion, although this could lead to an even more concentrated and polarised market than today. This does not mean that a strong correction is imminent, but simply that the market is riskier today than the situation prevailing three years ago.

At a global level, are there countries or sectors worth investing in right now? And which ones would be better avoided?

In general, we tend to approach country allocation with caution. Large capitalisation companies are mostly global companies, with sales spread across continents. That said, we must admit, however, that we value the Swiss equity market at current levels. From a sectoral perspective, we would still tend to slightly underweight Big Tech and look for diversification in sectors that benefit from AI-related enthusiasm, such as certain industrials, energy management, materials and utilities, as well as particularly cheap sectors such as consumer staples and healthcare.

IL CONFRONTO

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The most interesting companies?

Alphabet: valuation remains positive, YouTube continues to grow steadily, and the Ai-related franchise is very solid thanks to Gemini, whose utilisation is increasing rapidly. While Search is not losing ground as fast as feared, thanks in particular to the integration of Gemini. Cummins: Turnover can be volatile, as is often the case for equipment manufacturers, but this is mitigated by the parts and maintenance business. We have always been impressed by its strong pricing power, stable margins and transparent management. Asml: High-performance semiconductors cannot be produced without Asml's Euv technology The Dutch company is almost at the top of the semiconductor industry's value chain. With the growing demand for advanced chips in data centres and numerous other applications, we believe Asml is well positioned to take advantage of current developments in computing power.

Roche: after the strategic decision to focus more on profitability and optimise the pipeline, shareholders are likely to see positive returns already in the short to medium term.

Uber Technologies: we strongly believe in the potential of ride-sharing, where Uber is the leader, and home food delivery, where the company holds a solid second position. Both activities are growing very rapidly among the younger generation, which suggests a sustained pace of adoption in the future.

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