Banco Bpm weak, quarterly accounts in the red

  (Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - A session marked by profit-taking for Banco Bpm, in the aftermath of the publication of the 2025 accounts. Overall, the year closed with a net profit of 2.08 billion, +8.4% on the previous year and above guidance. On a like-for-like basis and without the contribution of Anima - which has been consolidated since the second quarter - profit fell, however, by 7.8% to EUR 1.8 billion, a figure that helps explain the market's reaction. Theprofit-taking thus comes in spite of some better-than-expected results, with investors' attention also focused on one-off operating expenses. In fact, the bank recorded gross extraordinary costs of EUR 76.8m, incurred for extraordinary transactions such as the aforementioned acquisition of Anima, the rationalisation of the branch network and, as the bank points out, charges "incurred to protect the interests of its shareholders in relation to the UniCredit takeover bid". On the remuneration front, the board of directors will propose a comprehensive dividend of EUR 1 per share, amounting to EUR 1.5 billion and an 80% payout, with the bank confirming its confidence that it will be able to maintain the same coupon in 2026.

According to Deutsche Bank experts, "fourth-quarter net profit of 417 million exceeded our estimates and consensus by 11% and 18% respectively, thanks to solid core revenues", with net interest income (Net Interest Income) and fees above expectations of 2% and 5%. The analysts also point out that 'quarter-on-quarter net interest income growth was supported by higher lending margins and stable rate sensitivity', adding that the momentum in current accounts and new lending is expected to support revenues also in 2026.

Also Intermonte speaks of 'better-than-expected results, both operating and net'. The 'good performance of net interest income reflects a slight growth in volumes and a marginal increase in the customer spread', Intermonte continues. All this "benefiting from both the usual seasonality of the fourth quarter and Anima's excellent performance". Analysts point out that "operating expenses were slightly below expectations, leading to an operating profit of EUR 773m (+8.8% on estimates)". During the conference call, management expressed 'positive messages on 2026, indicating the possibility of seeing overperformance on some lines of the income statement (Profits & Loss)'. Intermonte concludes that these are "positive results especially at the top line level, which confirm the validity of the Anima acquisition transaction".

More cautious Equita, according to which the fourth quarter accounts show 'results and distribution in line with expectations', with 'good indications on capital with pro-forma Cet1 at 13.8%'. Analysts report that 'results are 2% below expectations at the operating level and in line in terms of net profit', pointing out that 'revenues, slightly below expectations, are of better quality, with main positive surprises from commissions and insurance, offset by a worse financial result'. Looking ahead, analysts say the call shows that 'business performance is better than budgeted for the plan', although 'a revision of guidance is premature due to several elements that will impact earnings in the coming years'.