Welfare, the gaps between North and South are growing: Trento first, Calabria last

This scenario is weighed down by the demographic factor - with the progressive ageing of the population and the reduction of the working-age group - which, according to the authors of the report, makes it necessary to "rebalance spending towards the enabling factors of growth": education and skills, active social policies, health and prevention, in order to strengthen productivity and the well-being of the community.

After more than a century of growth, Italy's population has been decreasing since 2014 at an average annual rate of -0.4% over the decade 2014-2024. In 2024 there was a new all-time low in births (370,000), with a natural balance of -281,000. Demographic projections indicate that, in Istat's median scenario, the population will fall to 54.8 million in 2050 and 46.1 million in 2080, with the incidence of the over-65s rising to 34.9% in 2050. This implies lower contribution base and higher demand for social and health services: a further reason to invest in Human Capital as an axis of sustainability.

In 2024, 23.1% of the Italian population is at risk of poverty or social exclusion, one of the highest values among the 27 EU countries. The national figure has strong territorial differences, with regional performances close to the best European standards and areas where the share of vulnerable population is far higher.

Another important welfare item is health. Prevention is a crucial lever for welfare sustainability because it reduces systemic costs, improves health outcomes and enables people to realise their full potential throughout their lives. International evidence estimates up to EUR 14 return for every euro invested in preventive healthcare. Despite this, in 2024 only 5.6% of public health expenditure was allocated to prevention (7.7 billion out of 137.4). The Report calls for more screening, vaccinations, timely access to innovative therapies, the development of active ageing pathways and the promotion of organisational and technological models that support continuity of care.

'A country like ours, which is a small country compared to the world's greats,' stresses Carlo Cimbri, chairman of Unipol Assicurazioni, 'cannot compete on quantity but on quality. We must focus on quality to compete. We need to qualify our people by rewarding and valuing merit'. According to the Think Tank's estimates, by aligning Italy with European benchmarks on youth employment, women, foreigners, and the participation of 60-69 year-olds, an increase in employment of about 2.8 million could be triggered, generating GDP growth of up to 226 billion euros, or +10.6% over current levels.

What is needed, therefore, is a 'national strategy for the valorisation of human capital', articulated in different directions concerning the education system, the world of work, and social cohesion with the aim of developing the skills present in our country.