Welfare: spending rises from 693 to 715 billion; pensions account for half of the funds

In 2025, spending on welfare reached almost 693 billion euros, equivalent to 60 per cent of public expenditure; in 2026 it will reach around 715 billion euros and, in just over a decade (2037), it is estimated to exceed one trillion. Pension provision accounts for almost half of these resources (49.5 per cent), confirming its status as the main component of welfare expenditure, and represents 16.3 per cent of GDP – a percentage higher than the Eurozone average (12.5 per cent) – whilst the resources allocated to healthcare (6.6 per cent), social policies (4.8 per cent) and education (4 per cent) are below the respective Eurozone averages (7.4 per cent, 7.3 per cent and 4.6 per cent).

This is the picture painted by the report “Welfare, Italia”, commissioned by Unipol in collaboration with the Teha Group, with the contribution of a Scientific Committee chaired by Giuseppe Guzzetti, and presented at a forum in Rome, which opened with a message from the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella (““Welfare is not merely a matter of expenditure; rather, in our country it has always been a driving force behind the economy and society, acting as a resource for development and a tool for inclusion – invaluable characteristics”), in the presence, amongst others, of Ministers Orazio Schillaci (Health), Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani (Foreign Affairs) and Paolo Zangrillo (Public Administration).

The demographic outlook, characterised by birth rates at an all-time low (355,000 in 2025 compared with around 652,000 deaths), and by a gradual decline in the working-age population (-3.6 million by 2040, -6 million by 2050), poses the challenge of ensuring the long-term sustainability of the welfare system. “If we want welfare, we must ensure this country’s growth,” said Unipol’s chairman, Carlo Cimbri.

The report highlights the urgent need to boost the birth rate, increase labour market participation and invest in the development of human capital, in order to counter the effects of demographic decline. The changing structure of the family – between 2016 and 2025, the number of couples with children fell from 33 to 27 per 100 households (-18 per cent), whilst the number of single-parent households with children rose by 10 per cent – means that family policies and welfare services must be adapted to increasingly diverse needs.

Significant regional disparities persist in welfare services; in the South, greater social and economic vulnerability is accompanied by a lower availability of services: the provision of early years education stands at 19.3 places per 100 children aged between 0 and 2, compared with 37.9 in the North and 40.4 in the Centre.