US Elections

Trump mega-bet 'Whale' discovered: he is a mysterious French trader

He calls himself Theo and spoke to the Wall Street Journal: 'I just want to make money', not manipulate the election in favour of the Republican candidate

by Marco Valsania

Trader al lavoro a Wall Street

3' min read

3' min read

He is French, a Wall Street veteran and goes by the name Theo, but he is a stage name, or rather a betting name. And he has made some bets, the kind that burn: his are the multiple, colossal bets totalling more than 30 million dollars on Donald Trump's victory over Kamala Harris in the race for the White House, made through the forecasting marketplace Polymarket.

Revealing the sketch if not the exact identity and face of 'Theo' was the Wall Street Journal, which interviewed him via Zoom. 'My intention is simply to make money', not politics, he assured. Even if the origin of his funds remains obscure, so much so as to raise specters of election manipulation or at least of having generated, willy-nilly, momentum (and publicity) in favour of the Republican candidate's chances. Prediction markets have a history of mixed fortunes and remain relatively small, allowing a few resourceful individuals to easily influence them.

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In the interview with the Journal 'Theo' emerges as a trader with experience in finance, who worked for several banks and lived in the US before returning home. The Journal itself had reported in recent days that four large bets on a Trump success on the platform of Polymarket, a company that is based in New York but is not open to bets by US citizens, appeared to be attributable to the same player, financed through the same cryptocurrency exchange.

A subsequent investigation by Polymarket's lawyers led the company to track down and contact the 'Whale'. The investigation concluded that 'this individual is taking directional positions based on his personal views regarding the election'. Theo then also contacted the Journal by email to tell his story.

The newspaper, in order to ascertain his credibility, first asked him to place a mini-bet via one of the four pro-Trump accounts in the spotlight: on a Taylor Swift pregnancy in 2025. That said, the bet came from the account christened Theo4. And an interview followed via zoom. Theo, reports the Journal, in the remote dialogue had a well-groomed beard and was wearing a grey jumper.

He stated that he bet on Trump because he is convinced that his support is, today as in 2016 and 2020, systematically underestimated. 'I don't have a political agenda,' he asserted. Rather, he believes that Trump actually has an 80%-90% chance of success.

He added that he knows many Americans 'who vote for Trump without admitting it', a phenomenon known as the 'shy' voter, who wants to avoid public controversy. And he believes that, despite efforts in recent years to correct errors against the Republican candidate, the polls have "not changed substantially"

He also said he used his own money for his bets, but the Journal could not find any confirmation, nor could it rule out links to pro-Trump organisations. He defended his secrets by claiming he did not want anyone, not even his children and friends, to know about his wealth or his bets on Trump.

"However, 'Theo' appeared to show sympathies for conspiracy theories typical of Trump, a fact that may cast doubt on the purely financial nature of his bets. He argued that the Democrat-aligned media would be preparing the ground for social unrest by creating false expectations of an uncertain race, instead of giving credence to a clear Trump success as he does.

He certainly risks a lot for his beliefs, whether financial or political: if he wins his 30 million bet he could pocket over 80 million. He has bet not only on a Trump election to the presidency but also on him winning the popular vote outright, which is considered unlikely, and on his success in the most uncertain individual states, from Pennsylvania to Michigan. His accounts account for a quarter of all bets on Trump winning the Electoral College, the big electorates that award the White House, and 40% of bets on him winning the popular vote. In the event of a wrong bet 'Theo' would instead lose in one fell swoop all the 30+ million he has put on the line, defined as most of his liquid assets. To put it in French, mon Dieu!

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