Agriculture and trade

Wheat and agricultural commodities, Anacer: prices on the rise but no supply concerns

Italia is becoming increasingly less self-sufficient, but according to Andrea Galli, president of the traders’ association, there will be no stock shortage. Among the shortages, the situation is worst for maize and soya, the supply of which is concentrated in Brazil and the United States – key markets for the livestock sector

by Alessio Romeo

10 June 2026

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

The new wheat routes
The impact on animal husbandry and biofuels
Agriculture foots the bill for the crisis

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

‘There is no supply crisis, just a matter of rising costs. Viewed from a historical perspective, the Hormuz crisis, just like the 2022 war in Ukraine, took one or two months to adjust insurance cover, but wheat and other commodities, including fertilisers, continue to arrive. Ships continue to sail. The silos in Ravenna are full of urea: you just have to pay more.” Speaking is Andrea Galli, president of Anacer, the national association of grain traders which represents traders in the sector who import around 26 million tonnes of cereals, oilseeds and protein meals each year, with a turnover of 9 billion. In Rome, the assembly has just elected the executive board, which on 23 June will appoint the new president of the association, which turns 80 this year. “Only Covid has created problems for trade,” says Galli, “due to the inconsistency of health regulations.”

The new wheat routes

Over the last twenty years, wheat trade routes have shifted from East to West, and Italia, which already had a structural deficit, has lost significant market share in strategic sectors such as maize, where imports have more than doubled over the last ten years and, according to the association’s estimates, are expected to cover 60% of demand this year, whilst the deficit in soft wheat for the 2026 marketing year, which ends in July, is estimated at 70% (that for durum wheat stands at 43%). Soya imports, which cover around 80% of demand, have also practically doubled in ten years in response to growing demand from the feed industry.

“Italia will never be self-sufficient, but I wouldn’t worry about cereals, which will always be available, and if one supplier drops out, they can easily be replaced (this year, imports from France have almost doubled to replace those from Ukraine, ed.) – – he adds – about soya, the supply of which is concentrated in two countries, Brazil and the United States, and above all about meat. If there is a shortage of wheat, it can be found; if there is a shortage of soya, that is a problem.”

The impact on animal husbandry and biofuels

The crisis in the livestock sector (which is fuelled by soya and maize production) has been underestimated: ‘We are self-sufficient in poultry, but beef imports have reached 50 per cent. Livestock farms have much higher added value than arable farms, so much so that even Brazil, which will play an increasingly dominant role in the markets, is adopting our intensive model by converting the vast areas of extensive livestock farming to intensive crops. Furthermore, with wheat, we know how it is produced; with meat, it is more difficult.”

For this reason, Galli continues, “Europe must focus strongly on the production of plant-based proteins, as well as on building a biofuel supply chain, given the rising costs of fossil fuels, but with clear and, above all, enforceable rules”. One example is the rules on deforestation, which aim to prevent the import of products (such as soya) obtained from deforested land, through a complex system of certifications.

Italia has become Europe’s leading producer, with around 1.2 million tonnes of GMO-free soya, ‘which has a growing market linked in part to human consumption,’ Galli adds, ‘but this is not enough, and the steady rise in prices since 2022 has also squeezed this niche. The production of plant-based proteins is a very costly process; major investments have been made in Northern Europe, but they will not be enough to meet demand.”

The European export subsidies that once helped to sustain production over the last twenty years have been phased out. “Italia used to export maize flour and semolina; today we have to meet very rigid demand because poultry production is extremely strong but an increasing proportion of the national harvest ends up as biogas, with lower costs and profitability; it is a substandard solution.”

Agriculture foots the bill for the crisis

Agriculture is the sector paying the highest price for the geopolitical crisis, with fertiliser costs having doubled in three months whilst producer prices remain low due to high stock levels. Many farmers are shifting their crops towards less energy-intensive varieties. “Agriculture starts afresh every year; producers will do their sums. The agricultural world is very much alive, but investment is needed,” emphasises Galli. We cannot just produce PDO buffalo mozzarella or all eat Parmigiano. We must produce what is needed, a line of reasoning that farmers must engage in with the industry, strengthening dialogue on both sides. The younger generations are making progress, even if farm size remains a constraint, but they must be encouraged to produce what Europe needs, and policymakers must ensure competition among buyers. I would be pleased if we could reduce the deficit as we did for milk, thanks to the driving force of our ability to promote cheeses.”

The role of the Single Commission

The new single commission on durum wheat prices should help to boost high-quality production and, hopefully, market prices. “If the Cun helps to bring in a bit more money for farmers and provides certainty for the food industry, we’ll be the first to be pleased. Producers have the opportunity to invest more in quality and earn more. There are many commodity exchanges, but they reflect our way of seeing things; the problem is that we only have spot prices and nothing on futures contracts. Information is key.”