If algorithms and wind turbines determine geopolitics

It seems that the new geopolitical weapon is no longer oil or the atom bomb, but a well-trained algorithm and a wind turbine. If once upon a time territories were conquered with tanks, today a few lines of code and a tweet with the words 'energy transition' are enough to redirect the global balance. And while China and Saudi Arabia make all-in about the future, the West seems convinced that it is enough to conjure up artificial intelligence at conferences to stay relevant. The new geopolitics no longer needs generals: engineers, chips and a few gigs of data are enough. But beware: the price of ignorance could be much higher than that of the barrel. It is not, in fact, just a period of unrest resulting from Trump's tariff policies.

We live in a world in which the geopolitics and relative importance of states are changing in relation to the progressive affirmation of new determinants of competitiveness. Among these, the first refers to the energy transition, i.e. the need - due to the level of pollution reached by the use of fossil fuels - to replace current sources of supply with a new system based on renewable sources. This is an entirely different transition from those of the past: the switch from wood to coal was in fact motivated by greater functionality and lower costs (of the new source), incentives that are not (yet) present in much of the (new) energy system that was essentially created due to the enormous environmental problems of planet Earth.

More concretely, the most recent UN estimates show that the costs of the energy transition would average about five per cent of global GDP per year between now and 2050. The result is a geopolitical trilemma: how to balance energy security (due to exploding demand), affordability and sustainability. In other words, the energy transition will be a source of significant imbalances to the extent that it can be seen as transformative of current geopolitical arrangements. It will not proceed as many expect in a linear and uniform way: it will be multidimensional, with different rhythms, a different technological mix and varying priorities according to regions. China and Saudi Arabia are holding the cards, the Western world led by The Donald's regressive drive is basically at the pole on the technological development front. Secondly, the competitive landscape will be heavily determined by Artificial Intelligence (Ai), which together with digital transformation represents a real revolution in the socio-technical system. Ai has a very significant impact on a country's competitiveness not only as a productivity driver - according to some studies, it will generate benefits of more than 4 trillion dollars by 2030 - but also, and above all, as a technology that will change the structure of international trade. As a technology that, thanks to automation, allows for a reduction in (human) labour content, Ai may contribute to re-articulating value chains in a different way. Penalising developing countries that have always enjoyed a comparative advantage from low labour costs and instead favouring economies where capital and skills are already available. In this perspective, Ai becomes, on the one hand, an amplifier of divergences between developed and emerging countries and, on the other hand, a factor of geographic concentration of wealth and control of supply chains in a few countries where technology (and big tech) is already established.

In unpretentious but explicit terms, Ai redesigns the dynamics of the geopolitics of our Planet where those who are already strong (technologically and otherwise) become even stronger. It is no coincidence that China and the US are fighting it out on the AI front and its enabling ecosystem (semiconductors). A third factor that will rule the fate of the world will be code (software). In 2011, venture-capitalist Marc Andreessen declared that 'software is eating the world'. At the time, the phrase was a fascinating prediction, but today it appears to be an established reality. The digital code transforms the logic of international trade: it will not be goods that will be transported, data will move globally to make possible (via 3D printers and others) targeted productions aimed at subjugating the local market. On the other hand, code will determine the pace of life for all of us and the dynamics of people's learning and access to content. In this framework, competitiveness will reside in those countries that will be able to overcome a strictly manufacturing and matter-based view of their economic system.

All in all, this new 'geopolitical triangle' places man at the centre, but not in its quantitative dimension - of labour supply - as much as in its quality: knowledge will be the most important asset on which the fate of the world will be played out. Trump is doing everything he can to get the US into trouble: Europe, strike a blow and carpe diem. The world is racing towards a new order in which knowledge is not just power: it is survival. Those who know how to master power, algorithms and code will write the rules of the game; the others will be spectators - or worse, customers. In this game, there is no extra time. It is time to choose between sitting back and watching the future or getting our hands dirty to build it.