Wine, duties and wars put 4 billion exports at risk

The leading Italian wine-growing region maintains its record: last year the Veneto vineyard - which reached 103,500 hectares (+2.3% compared to 2023), for 13.7 million quintals of grapes harvested (+0.7% over the previous harvest) - produced 11 million hectolitres of wine and shipped to about 150 global destinations. The home of the Prosecco phenomenon, as well as the reds of Valpolicella and the whites of Soave and Pinot Grigio delle Venezie, confirmed itself as the locomotive of tricolour sales beyond the borders, at 3 billion euro in value, an increase of +7.3% on the previous year (a figure higher than the national average, at +5.5%), accounting for about 37% of wine exports from Italy. The United States, Germany, Canada and the United Kingdom are the top four global buyers of Veneto wineries. The top 20 outlet countries alone account for 90% of the value of sales on international markets.

The growth trend did not affect the entire Triveneto region. Trentino Alto Adige, for example, remains in fourth place in terms of value in the ranking of exporting regions, but fell back to Euro 611.2 million (-2.8%), closing the year in the negative, while Friuli Venezia Giulia, another region with a white-wine traction, gained positions, tenth in the top ten in value, at Euro 226.17 million (+9%). However, the PDOs of the North East have distinguished themselves as drivers of growth in national exports (+5.5% in value). This is the case for Prosecco, which recorded a leap of 11.1%, but also for the whites of Trentino Alto-Adige and Friuli Venezia-Giulia (+6.5%), the whites (+9.2%) and the reds of Veneto (+5.7%). The result, in practice, is that controlled designations of origin have been widely promoted on foreign markets, as demonstrated by the latest research carried out by Nomisma on commission from Unicredit and dedicated to the prospects for wines in the North East.

However, it is above all the impetuous and constant growth of foreign sales of Veneto wine, even in difficult years due to the drop in consumption worldwide, that is surprising. Despite the international uncertainty," comments Giorgio Polegato, president of Coldiretti's regional wine-growing council, "our products continued their race towards foreign outlets last year, as can be seen from the cross-referenced data released by the Region, Veneto Agricoltura and the region's most important protection consortia. In the Veneto vineyard, white grape varieties prevail (75% of the total), including glera, which feeds the Prosecco bubbles, constantly climbing the ladder of new market shares. By now, 2 out of every 10 bottles of Italian wine sold abroad concern this denomination. According to the UIV Observatory, already in October last year, for the first time, bottles of sparkling wine going abroad (528 million) exceeded those of red and rosé wines (524 million), further distancing white wines (460 million). Italy is therefore increasingly turning into a Sparkling Wine Country, with the province of Treviso as its capital, and sparkling wines are leading in several destinations: from the United Kingdom, to France, Poland and the Czech Republic, Spain, and Russia. In the latter country, according to the Nomisma Wine Monitor - Unicredit Observatory, the year-on-year growth in value of sparkling wines from Veneto has been particularly significant and equal to +43.7%. This was followed by Austria (+31.4%) and Canada (+25.6%). Prosecco is worth 75% of the total national sparkling wines; it is cultivated in a vineyard of about 40 thousand hectares, adding up the three denominations (Conegliano Valdobbiadene, Asolo and Prosecco Doc). In practice, 6% of tricolour plants claim 22% of Italy's exports in terms of value. From 2014 to 2023, foreign sales of these bubbles - as certified by the latest Veneto Agricoltura report on Veneto wine exports - have grown both in volume (+136%) and value (+204.4%) by triple figures.

Also of the same magnitude is the progression of Veneto wine on the first outlet market, the United States, which alone absorbs 21% of the total, with a value of around Euro 600 million in 2023 that will increase in 2024, given the massive purchases made in recent months by American importers in view of the duties threatened by President Trump. Compared to 2014, the volumes demanded by the States grew by 3.7%, while turnover in the period doubled, up +104.7%. In contrast, the increase from Germany, the second largest customer of local wineries, is less significant: over the last ten years, turnover has risen by +39.4%. In 2023, the United Kingdom (+34.2%) was confirmed in third place, but for the past year it is possible that the latest elaborations in progress on Istat data show an overtaking by Canada. On the whole, however, focusing on the top 20 positions in the ranking, the last decade has seen a strong leap forward by Slovakia (+11 places), Poland (+7), Belgium (+6) and France (+5), while the most significant setbacks have been seen in Denmark (-7 places), Norway (-6) and Japan (-6).

Looking ahead, however, the situation is rather critical. World wine consumption has been steadily declining since 2007, albeit in an erratic manner. The latest downward trend, which began in 2018, coincided with the drop in wine consumption in China, which fell by -24.7% in 2023. In Europe, trade has been adversely affected by the war between Russia and Ukraine. Rising energy and raw material costs drove up prices, leading to the downward trend in global demand. However, it is not only on-shelf prices that are keeping wine lovers from buying. There are also the emerging health trends that are leading to calorie control in the bottle or the demand for zero-alcohol wines. Changes that producers will increasingly have to take into account.