Wine exports in the first half of the year saved by stocks made before tariffs

"While waiting for the ruling of the US Court of Appeals on the legitimacy of the tariffs, promoted among other things by some local companies including the importer of Italian wines Victor Schwartz," commented the head of Nomisma's Wine Monitor, Denis Pantini, "it is clear that our wine companies are obliged to monitor the dynamics taking place at global level to identify other markets capable of absorbing our production.

As far as the other reference markets are concerned, in Canada Italian wines have also 'discounted' a Trump tariffs effect, but this time in a positive way in the sense that Italian bottles have benefited from a substitution effect of American wines penalised instead by Canadian citizens in the wake of the US-Canadian trade war triggered by President Trump himself. Thus, in the first half of the year, Italian exports to Canada grew by almost 11% while American wines left as much as 65% on the ground.

A very positive performance for Italian wines was also recorded in Germany (+10.3% in value), clearly recovering compared to last year.

On the contrary, the United Kingdom recorded a drop in imports of Italian wines of -7% in value, as did Switzerland, South Korea, Norway and China, which recorded a drop in imports in response to the slowdown in domestic demand. On the positive side, however, Japan and Brazil.

With respect to the individual wine categories, from January to June 2025, the rise of Italian sparkling wines slowed downwith a cumulative growth in the 12 markets of +1% in value and +6% in volume: Japan, the United States and China are the three markets registering the most dynamic growth.

An opposite picture, on the other hand, is that of the United Kingdom (-6.6% in value), France (-2.4%) and Australia (-4.4%). In terms of purchases of Italian still and semi-sparkling wines, Germany, after a negative 2024, made a nice recovery (+14.2% in value), together with Canada, Australia and Brazil, showing positive performance compared to other markets such as the United Kingdom (-8.1%) and China (-10.5%).

Pantini concluded: "The risk of a contraction in the US market could have a significant impact on Italian wine exports, also in the light of a trend in domestic consumption that has been showing signs of slowing down for some years now. A downturn in the US market could not be easily compensated, at least in the short term, by growth in other markets, which often have slower development dynamics and lower absorption capacity. It is precisely for this reason that it becomes essential for our companies to start looking more carefully at new geographical areas of expansion, diversifying their outlet markets as much as possible. However, it is necessary to be aware of the fact that the process of commercial establishment outside of consolidated markets, such as the US, requires medium to long timeframes, as well as targeted investments and long-term strategies'.