Wine: first positive upturn in Italian exports to the United States

The first significant upturn in Italian wine exports to the US. According to data from the European Commission, compiled by the Italian Wine Union Observatory, shipments of Italian wine rose by 9.5 per cent in value and 1.3 per cent in volume in July. But that’s not all.

After months of decline, the average price of Italian wines has also risen (by 8 per cent). This is a significant figure, as it could signal an end to the price cuts implemented by producers in an attempt to offset the impact of tariffs and maintain their market share.

“According to our forecasts,” explain representatives of the UIV Observatory, “an even more substantial increase could be recorded in August. This would be significant because there have not been two consecutive months of growth in Italian wine exports to the US since early 2025.” Despite July’s rebound, the trend in the US over the first seven months remains negative (-11 per cent) but is improving compared with June (when the decline was 14 per cent). “It is too early to talk of a turnaround,” commented UIV Secretary-General Paolo Castelletti, “not least because US consumption has not yet picked up. However, this is a first positive sign ahead of major autumn events such as Vinitaly in New York. The risks for European producers in the US remain very much in place, ranging from the overcapacity investigation (which assesses whether a country is producing far more than its domestic demand, ed.) – which could lead to new tariffs – to runaway inflation, which is eroding consumers’ purchasing power”.

It should also be noted that last year, the introduction of tariffs in August was preceded by a surge in US wine purchases aimed at building up stocks before the tariffs came into force. These stockpiles influenced the interpretation of the data over the following twelve months. Now – in the view of many – it is highly likely that stocks have been depleted and so buyers have resumed placing orders.

“The market in general, and the American market in particular, are undergoing profound change,” commented Carlo Flamini, head of the Uiv Observatory. “Consumption patterns are shifting, not only within the wine segment (sparkling wines, cocktails, ready-to-drink), but also towards different beverages such as hard teas (teas with an alcohol content of at least 5 degrees) or cannabis-based kombucha – products that are better aligned, even in terms of packaging, with a market that demands portability and convenience. Wine must adapt to these new trends and rebuild a positive rapport with what remains the world’s largest market.”