Climate

Wmo: 2024 temperature likely to exceed the 1.5 degree limit

Roberta Boscolo, Climate and Energy Lead of the World Meteorological Organisation: 'This does not mean that we have already reached the target of the Paris Agreement. This refers to decades, not months. But it is a very critical signal'.

2' min read

2' min read

"From the provisional data we have from January to September, it is likely that the average global temperature in 2024 will exceed the 1.5 degree limit from pre-industrial levels". This was said by Roberta Boscolo, Climate and Energy Lead of the World Meteorological Organisation (Wmo), speaking via video link to the States General of the Green Economy at the Ecomondo trade fair in Rimini.

"The average temperature over the last ten years has been 1.2 - 1.3 degrees above the pre-industrial average (1850 - 1900, ed.)," Boscolo continued, "In 2023 it was 1.45 degrees higher. According to the researcher, 'this does not mean that we have already reached the target of the Paris Agreement. This refers to decades, not months. But it is a very critical signal'.

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Paris Treaty and Trump

The 2015 Paris Agreement, on combating climate change, recommends keeping the rise in global temperatures as close as possible to that level at the end of the century (compared to pre-industrial levels) to prevent the most serious consequences. There are 195 signatory states to the agreement. The United States, under the first Trump presidency, decided to pull out of the Agreement a few months after it was signed. President Biden, after being elected, brought the US back into the Climate Agreement.

What will happen now with the new Trump presidency? Will the States exit the treaty again?

Dubai Cop29

Unep, the UN environment body, has called on states to reduce emissions by 42% by the end of the decade and 57% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels. The biggest effort falls to the G20 states, which generate about 77% of global emissions. Seven of them, such as China and India, have yet to reach peak emissions.

Cop28 in Dubai, more or less a year ago, had closed with a commitment to move away from fossil fuels, the primary contributors to global warming and climate change. An ambiguous formula, the one adopted by the final document: 'transition away' and not 'phase out', i.e. abandonment. What will happen now in Baku? Azerbaijan will host Cop29 from 11 November. Will there finally be drastic choices to cut greenhouse gas emissions? There are many experts' doubts about the upcoming UN climate change event.

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