FederlegnoArredo Monitor

Wood-furniture, sales down 2.7 % in 2024

Business estimates according to data compiled by FederlegnoArredo's study centre. Small recovery expected for the end of the year and in 2025

by Giovanna Mancini

3' min read

3' min read

It has been a difficult year, more than expected, and one that has betrayed the expectations of those who, at the beginning of 2024, had bet on a recovery with respect to a 2023 that was already a rebound. And if the first signs of a downturn were hinting at a normalisation of the market after two years of extraordinary growth, it is now clear that even for the wood-furniture sector we are facing a demand problem, although the drop in sales is for now more contained than in other sectors of Italian manufacturing.

This is shown by the data of the latest Monitor drawn up by FederlegnoArredo's study centre, relating to the first nine months of 2024, according to which the companies surveyed indicate a 4.9% drop in sales in the wood-furnishing supply chain compared to the same period in 2023. Both the domestic market (-5.4%) and the foreign market (-4.1%) were down. The furniture macro-system closed at -3.7%, summing up the 3% drop in Italy and the 4.3% drop in exports. The contraction of the wood macrosystem was heavier, recording an overall -7.5%, which for Italy reaches -8.9% while exports a more contained -4.1%.

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Negative year end

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The negative trend in the third quarter also leads companies to estimate a minus sign for the entire year, explains the president of FederlegnoArredo, Claudio Feltrin: "The Monitor's forecasts for the supply chain speak of a -2.7% year-end, with Italy at -3.7% and exports at -1.3%. Companies are confident in a small turnaround in the final part of the year that could herald a slow recovery in 2025".

Among the various sectors of the supply chain, furniture companies declare a more contained downturn for the end of the year (-1.7%), with no particular differences between Italy (-1.9%) and abroad (-1.5%). For the wood macro-system, on the other hand, the forecast is more pessimistic: an overall -4.3%, determined by -5.8% of Italian sales and only partly contained by exports, stable at -0.7%. Within the wood system, the panel sector is one of the hardest hit, with a drop in Italian sales of 11.4%, which account for 73% of the total, while exports record -4%, bringing the overall sector trend to -9.5%. The drop affects all segments and is most marked for chipboard, plywood and MDF on the domestic market.

The packaging system also recorded a drop of 8%, due to both a reduction in the price of packaging, down 6.3%, and a decrease in industrial production, which fell by 2.9% in January-September 2023.

Industrial Production

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These rather negative trends are also reflected in the ISTAT data on industrial production, according to which October 2024 compared to October 2023 registers -8% for wood and -5% in the cumulative January-October 2024 compared to 2023, confirming the deterioration in the climate of confidence already seen last month.

For furniture, the drop is more contained, thanks to an albeit slight improvement compared to September, which translates into a drop of 0.8% in October, while the cumulative figure for the first ten months of the year is -3.5%. As a whole, manufacturing, of which the wood-furniture sector represents 4.2% in terms of turnover, recorded a drop of 3.6% in October, which in the cumulative figure becomes -3.4%.

The forecast for the coming months

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"It is clear that the expectations and forecasts of our companies at the beginning of the year are shrinking and lead us to think with reasonable certainty that for the supply chain the year will close with a minus sign," comments Claudio Feltrin. "The Italian market, orphaned by tax incentives, is showing signs of a more marked slowdown, compared to exports which, despite the difficulties caused by an economic and political context that has to deal with more than one ongoing war, seem to be holding up. As can be seen from the forecasts: in June they indicated a stability of the supply chain at 0.8%, which has now become -2.7%, while exports have gone from -3.7% in June to -1.3% now. All this is to say that our supply chain as a whole, thanks to the boost from exports, especially to the USA, the Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, and to the flexibility and speed of our companies in repositioning themselves on new markets, is undoubtedly holding up better than other production systems that are experiencing really dark times. Imagining 2025 in the sector, given the situation, is, in any case, an extremely complex exercise'.

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