Labour: Coface-Oem, with AI more exposed white-collar workers than blue-collar workers
One in eight professions exceeds the 30 per cent threshold of automatable tasks. The most at risk are engineering, IT, finance, law, administration and creative professions. Italia is less exposed than other countries thanks to its manufacturing and commercial structure
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - With the advance of artificial intelligence in the world of work, "it is now the cognitive, complex and skilled jobs that appear to be increasingly at risk, with the possibility of a disruption in the structure of employment". This is the finding of the joint study by Coface, a world leader in credit insurance and commercial risk management, and the Observatoire des Metiers Menaces et Emergents (Oem), which analysed 923 occupations by breaking them down into elementary tasks to measure their exposure to AI-driven automation. "The results overturn the established narrative: those most at risk are not manual and repetitive activities (performed by blue-collar workers), but rather cognitive and skilled ones (engineering, It, finance, law, administration and creative professions) where more than a quarter of the job content could be automated," highlights the study, from which a significant break from previous waves of automation thus emerges:AI in fact does not represent a continuation of technologies such as robotics or software, but shifts the focus towards complex, non-repetitive tasks. Its impact is deeply diversified: it is first felt at the task level, then producing variable effects on professions, occupational groups and, beyond these, on the sectors in which they are concentrated.
Skilled and information-related activities in particular are in the crosshairs
In the main scenario analysed, related to the development of agent-based AI, about one in eight professions exceeds the threshold of 30% of tasks that can be automated, which the study identifies as a threshold of profound transformation of the profession, opening the way for a potentially significant redeployment of personnel, without necessarily sanctioning their disappearance. The most exposed professions are concentrated in highly skilled and information-intensive fields: engineering, IT, administrative roles, finance, law and some creative and analytical professions. In contrast, less vulnerable occupations remain largely manual or involve human interactions that are difficult to standardise: manufacturing, construction, maintenance, transport, catering, cleaning and some health and welfare activities. In addition, the study measures the actual content of at-risk work in each of the labour markets surveyed by comparing the share of automatable tasks in each of the 923 occupations with their relative employment volume. Grouping them into eight broad categories, it identifies the occupational groups most at risk. The main results clearly show that more than a quarter of the job content could be automated in management and administration, creative professions, law and finance, and engineering and IT.In contrast, personal services and technical, craft and industrial production professions remain below the 10% threshold. Professions in care, education, sales and, more generally, professions in contact with the public occupy an intermediate position: some of their tasks are at risk, but their human dimension continues to be a protective factor.
Differences between countries, Italia less exposed
Countries' exposure to AI-driven automation varies significantly across countries, ranging from Turkey, with 12 per cent of job content exposed to automation (defined as the share of automatable tasks in total employment) to United Kingdom (20 per cent). The richest economies and those most oriented towards skilled services, the study explains, appear to be the most exposed to automation. Apart from the UK, the Netherlands, Ireland and Luxembourg show a higher concentration of information-intensive occupations, while countries where employment is more oriented towards trade, personal services, construction, transport or other more physically intensive activities show a more moderate exposure. Italy is on average less exposed, thanks to its manufacturing and trade structure. With 15.5% of the content of at-risk jobs out of the total workforce, the country is slightly below the European average for exposure to AI. Its profile places it within a broader southern European cluster, along with Portugal and Spain and, to a lesser extent, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey. Italia's position reflects its economic and employment structure: retail trade, accommodation and catering, transport, real estate and manufacturing play a more prominent role than the European average, while information and communication, professional and scientific services and the broader public services sector occupy a relatively smaller space. "Italy's positioning below the European average should not lead to a false sense of security," explains Pietro Vargiu, country manager of Coface Italia. "What protects us today - the weight of manufacturing, trade, traditional services - is not a permanent barrier: when agent AI reaches full maturity, the effects will propagate along the entire value chain, also involving supply chains that are today apparently sheltered. For Italian companies, the real challenge is one of preparation: rethinking skills, decision-making processes and organisational models before the transformation becomes subjugated rather than governed".
