World trade, fears grow over payment defaults

Despite the conflict in the Middle East, the trade war between geopolitical blocs and the tariffs wanted by the Trump administration, more than 70 per cent of companies expect export growth this year but are bracing themselves for an increase in insolvency risks. Indeed, the conflict in the Middle East is tightening trade financing conditions. Payment times are getting longer and the share of companies paid within 30 days has dropped from 10% to 7% since the beginning of the conflict, while the share of those waiting more than 70 days has increased from 15% to 24%. Looking ahead, 43% of companies expect payment terms to deteriorate further, up 5 percentage points from the pre-conflict period with an increased risk of non-payment. This is the finding of the Allianz Global Survey Trade 2026 in which 6,000 companies from 13 countries participated. The survey was conducted in two stages between February and March 2026 to highlight critical issues and problems in the export war, global trade and supply chains.

"Allianz Trade's Global Survey reveals that 75% of exporters continue to expect positive export growth in 2026. The impact of the conflict in the Middle East seems moderate, even more so when compared to the tariff shock of 2025, when expectations plummeted by 40 percentage points,' explains Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade. 'However, this optimism remains fragile and could fade quickly if the conflict continues. In fact, Vietnamese, US and Spanish companies have all lost more than 10 percentage points of confidence due to the conflict, while Chinese companies have lost 9 percentage points'. Confidence declines while fears of late and non-payment grow. The share of companies expecting a higher risk rose to 40 per cent (+6 percentage points compared to the pre-conflict period) with the pharmaceutical, construction and IT/telecommunications sectors being the most exposed. In addition, large multinationals face disproportionately longer payment cycles.

A completely different scenario compared to the 2025 data 'battle' of the Trump administration. Companies with long supply chains were the most responsive and particularly more likely to turn to new suppliers and redirect flows than the overall sample. The most common adaptation mechanisms were increasing inventories and diversifying into new markets (64% each), as well as sourcing from new suppliers (63%), indicating a widespread effort to reduce risks on both the demand and supply sides. This is followed by redirection through third markets (57%), confirming that companies are also adapting logistics to circumvent trade frictions. Today we are reckoning with war and complexity is growing as the ad warns. "Conflict has pushed geopolitical and political risk to the top of the global threat list for 65% of companies, surpassing the complexity and concentration of supply chains (45%), which were the main concern in 2025 during the trade war. Then supply-side issues, such as supplier failure and input shortages, rose to second place (57%)'.

Interest in Europe as an export market is on the rise, with Singaporean exporters (+10 percentage points compared to 2025) and the United States (+9 percentage points compared to 2025) showing the most marked increase in interest. Asia remains the preferred offshore destination overall, although the attractiveness of investment in China has plummeted: only 23% of companies (-30 percentage points compared to 2025) plan to increase their presence while 10% are actively planning to leave.