Young people, families with children and workers: the most exposed to inflation risk

Large families, young singles, blue collar workers and the unemployed. These are the categories most exposed to the inflation risk ignited by the war in the Gulf. Because they are the ones who - according to ISTAT surveys - spend the most on food, transport and households. That is to say, the items most sensitive to rising energy commodity prices. These three expenditure chapters in 2024 absorbed 42.3% of the average outgoings for consumption by Italian households (1,164 euro per month out of 2,755). In the case of the most exposed households, however, this percentage rises to over 45%, peaking at 52% for those seeking employment. At the territorial level, the southern regions and Piedmont are above 45%.

The inflation account in the coming months will depend on the Middle East conflict and the aftermath it will leave behind. The first indications, however, call for caution. In March, Istat preliminarily estimated an increase of 0.5% per month and 1.7% per year in the national consumer price index for the entire community (NIC). An increase that, according to the Institute, 'is mainly affected by the sharp rise in energy prices' and the 'acceleration of unprocessed food prices'.

The war started by the US and Israel against Iran, with the reflections on the choke point of Hormuz (and Bab el-Mandeb), has brought the energy shocks issue back to the forefront. And in the past few days various alarms on prices and growth have come from Bankitalia, the ECB, the IMF and the OECD. The dispute involves a key junction for gas and oil supplies, and not only (think fertilisers). And for the ayatollah regime it is also linked to the Israeli attacks in Lebanon against Hezbollah.

The picture of possible inflationary momentum therefore remains uncertain, not least because of the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump. But ISTAT's analysis of household consumption expenditure, although updated to 2024, still offers indications, given that 2025 was a year of low inflation (+1.5%). The 2024 figure is indicative because it also includes the effects of the post-Covid price flare-up, aggravated by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. From 2019 to 2024, in fact, in Italia the weight of the average monthly outlay for food, transport and utilities rose from 40.8 to 42.3 per cent of total expenditure. The difference - on average 1.5% more - tends to widen among households most exposed to price increases, reaching 2.6% for young people living alone, for example.

The invasion of Ukraine in 2022 produced a price spike that immediately moved from energy goods to sensitive sectors such as food (also affected by fertilisers and packaging) and more slowly to others. After a year and a half, the inflation rate returned to moderate levels, but prices remained above their previous levels. The crisis, in short, has left its mark.