Ukraine

Russian plane enters the skies over the Baltic Sea. Trump: we will help defend Poland if Russia escalates

Moscow claims the downing of 19 Ukrainian drones, while Kiev denounces the use of foreign components in Russian weapons and calls for new sanctions. Europe strengthens common defence with 'Readiness 2030' plan, Stubb revives security guarantees and Trump accuses allies of continuing to buy oil from Moscow

21 September 2025

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In questa foto fornita dalla 65ª Brigata meccanizzata ucraina sabato 20 settembre 2025, i soldati ucraini mimetizzano un veicolo di artiglieria dopo aver sparato contro le posizioni russe sulla linea del fronte nella regione di Zaporizhzhia, in Ucraina. (Andriy Andriyenko/65ª Brigata meccanizzata ucraina tramite AP) Associated Press/LaPresse

3' min read

Key points

The Ukrainian counterattack
Zelensky's appeal: sanctions and large-scale attacks
Security guarantees: the Finnish proposal and the deterrent node
The European Union organises itself
Words from Washington
Scenarios and resilience tests: why accidents are significant

3' min read

On Sunday morning, the German Air Force dispatched two Eurofighters to follow a Russian IL-20m military aircraft that had entered neutral airspace over the Baltic Sea, before passing the escort to NATO partners in Sweden.

The Moscow Defence Ministry also reported that, overnight,Russian air defence systems intercepted and destroyed 19 Ukrainian long-range drones. According to the note relayed by the Tass agency, the drones were neutralised in several places: 12 on the territory of the Republic of Crimea, four on the Black Sea, two in the Bryansk region and one in the Kursk region. The Kremlin communiqué does not, as usual, offer independent elements for immediate verification.

In the meantime, Donald Trump said the US will help defend Poland if Russia continues to increase pressure.

The Ukrainian counterattack

From the Ukrainian side come different figures and reports: the Kiev Air Force, quoted by the Ukrainska Pravda, speaks of a night attack with 54 drones (including Shahed, Gerber and other types), of which 33 were shot down or neutralised and 21 were able to strike eight different locations. Among the reported incidents, drone attacks on the village of Velykyi Burluk - where a fire on a farm destroyed the roof of a warehouse covering some 200 square metres - but without casualties or injuries, local sources report.

Zelensky's appeal: sanctions and large-scale attacks

Volodymyr Zelensky reiterated via Telegram the call for tougher measures: "We must block all possible supply routes, circumvent sanctions, put pressure on countries and individual companies that help them". The Ukrainian president emphasised the industrial scale of Russia's war apparatus, denouncing the presence of "thousands of foreign components" in the weapons deployed and urging another "really painful" sanctions package, with the support of the United States. In subsequent messages, he also estimated the intensity of Russian attacks, evoking very high numbers of drones, guided bombs and missiles launched against Ukraine in recent weeks.

Security Guarantees: The Finnish Proposal and the Knot of Deterrence

On the politico-diplomatic level, the President of Finland Alexander Stubb explained to the Guardian the logic of the so-called "security guarantees" for Kiev: measures that, in the planned wording, would commit the signatory European countries to military intervention should Russia resume large-scale aggressive action against Ukraine. Stubb emphasised that such guarantees would only be effective after an agreement between Kiev and Moscow and reiterated that "Russia will not have any veto rights over their format". According to the Finnish leader, to be a deterrent a guarantee must be 'plausible and strong' and its credibility implies the concrete willingness of partners to intervene.

The European Union organises itself

From the European Union come words and measures to strengthen the common defence. In an interview with La Repubblica the President of the Commission Ursula von der Leyen emphasised the need for a "stronger" European defence pillar alongside NATO. Von der Leyen recalled the launch of the 'Readiness for 2030' programme, designed to fill capability gaps, accelerate procedures and mobilise up to EUR 800 billion for the defence industry. With a view to greater resilience, von der Leyen also pointed to the reduction of energy dependence on Russia, with investments in renewables and baseload nuclear power.

Words from Washington

On the US side, the energy issue returned to the centre of the debate with interventions even off the official agenda. In a speech at Mount Vernon Donald Trump ironically addressed an American representative to NATO with the remark that "the Europeans are buying oil from Russia" and said he was "disappointed in Putin", while claiming an alleged "good relationship" with the Russian president as a potential lever for peace.

Scenarios and resilience tests: why accidents are significant

Shocks and sub-threshold flyovers - and drone attacks - are becoming tools for testing response capacity, political cohesion and civil resilience. Von der Leyen called incidents like the one in Poland "extremely significant" and warned that Russia seems willing to accept the risk of "fatal accidents". This is also why the EU is aiming to strengthen its defence industry and rapid response capability.