Chinese wind power: two-thirds of growth comes from Beijing

2023 was a record year for wind power: for the first time, new installed capacity worldwide exceeded 100 gigawatts, thanks mainly to China, which alone made up 65% of the annual installed capacity

17 June 2024

4' min read

Global Wind Day: 15 June is Wind Day, an event that began in Europe in 2007 and now involves no less than 75 countries around the world. From the distribution of kites to children to the inauguration of the tallest wind turbine, the wind is the absolute star of the day, with thousands of events around the world.

Wind energy, which now satisfies almost one fifth of Europe's electricity demand, is a key pillar of climate protection, which necessarily passes through the transition to clean sources and the elimination of fossil fuels. The year 2023 was a record year for wind power: for the first time, new installed capacity worldwide exceeded 100 gigawatts and cumulative capacity exceeded 1,000 gigawatts (1 terawatt), thanks mainly to China, which alone accounted for 65 per cent of the annual installed capacity.

Europe far from 2030 targets

It was also a year of growth for European wind power, but we are still far from the development needed to reach the EU's 2030 renewables targets. This was announced by the European industry association, WindEurope: 17 gigawatts of new wind farms were installed in 2023, the most ever for a single year, of which 14 gigawatts on land and 3 gigawatts offshore. It would take twice as many, however, at least 30 gigawatts on average per year, to meet the 2030 targets.

The wind energy package presented by the European Commission in October showed the obstacles to the EU's ambition to increase installed wind power capacity from 220 gigawatts in 2023 to over 500 gigawatts in 2030: insufficient and uncertain demand, slow and complex authorisation procedures, increased pressure from foreign competitors and a lack of skilled labour. To tackle these bottlenecks, in December 26 EU member states (except Hungary) signed a joint declaration on wind power, the European Wind Charter, which among other measures aims to strengthen turbine production on our continent by changing the rules for renewable energy auctions, for example by introducing criteria related to environmental sustainability, IT security and corporate governance.

Last year, however, wind power accounted for 19% of EU electricity generation, with 475 terawatt hours produced (+13% compared to 2022), equivalent to France's total electricity demand, and for the first time wind power beat gas, which stopped at 452 terawatt hours. It also beat, and by far, generation from coal, which collapsed to an all-time low with 333 terawatt-hours produced (-26% compared to 2022). Coal generated only 12% of EU electricity last year, according to the European Electricity Review 2024 by Ember, an independent non-profit think tank based in London.

50% growth by 2022

Globally, 106 gigawatts of onshore wind farms and 11 gigawatts of offshore wind farms were installed in 2023, for a total of 117 gigawatts, up 50 per cent from 2022. Offshore wind marked its second best year ever, following the boom of 21 gigawatts realised in 2021. As for this year, the global forecast is to reach a total of 131 gigawatts of new installations, between onshore and offshore projects, according to the Global Wind Report 2024 drl Global Wind Energy Council, rising to 148 gigawatts in 2025. But there is still a long way to go. Annual installations are expected to triple, from 117 gigawatts in 2023 to at least 320 gigawatts by 2030, if a growth path is to be followed in line with the target set by COP 28 in Dubai last December.

Rise in estimates to 2030

Meanwhile, Gwec has raised its growth forecast for 2024-2030 by 10 per cent (+1,210 gigawatts total), following the establishment of new industry policies in major economies, the momentum gained by offshore wind and promising growth among emerging markets. However, notes Gwec CEO Ben Backwell, 'growth is highly concentrated in a few large countries such as China, the US, Brazil and Germany, while we need many other countries to remove barriers and improve market structures'. Bottlenecks in investment planning and bureaucratic complexities, with long queues of projects waiting for permits, are the main obstacles to be removed in order to speed up the development of new wind power plants, writes Gwec.

The forecasts for Europe for the next five years are in line with WindEurope's outlook 2024-2030, which considers the latest developments in EU industry regulation and national policies and the role of wind power in the upcoming auctions. For the EU countries alone, the figure is 93 gigawatts of new onshore installations over the five-year period, with an average of almost 19 gigawatts per year.

Looking at Italy, in 2023 wind power generated 23.4 terawatt-hours, a record for our country's wind power, which last year covered 7.6% of the country's electricity demand and 9.1% of national production (thus less than half the European averages). These numbers show the strong delay in the development of this technology, which today in Italy is the third green source by generation and accounts for 20.7% of the total of electrical renewables. In fact, the annual installed capacity is not keeping up with the pace needed to reach the 2030 targets. In 2023, new installed power amounted to almost 488 megawatts, according to Terna-Gaudi data, slightly down (-7%) on 2022. With new installations at the end of December 2023, Italy reached a wind power capacity of 12.3 gigawatts, a far cry from the targets of the new Climate Energy Plan currently being approved, which envisages at least 28 gigawatts by 2030, net of any divestments of old plants. This is an ambitious target, which clashes with the timing of the authorisation process and with the strong resistance of the regions, first and foremost Sardinia, which has just passed a new moratorium. 'When the political battle prevails over good administration, it is always the common good that loses out,' comments Simone Togni, president of the National Wind Energy Association. In particular, it will not be easy to see 300 megawatt offshore parks operational by 2025 and 2,100 megawatts by 2030, as envisaged in the National Plan, in a country where not a single one has yet been installed.

@elencomelli