Climate

Five years of record heat on the way. Torrid 2027 due to El Niño

According to the World Meteorological Organisation, a year between 2026 and 2030 could exceed 2024 and become the hottest ever recorded

by Pietro Menzani

29 May 2026

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

El Niño
Global temperatures
Precipitation

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Between 2026 and 2030, global temperatures will continue to travel at record levels. Sounding the alarm is the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) in its annual report 'Global annual-to-decadal update', produced by the UK Met Office by combining contributions from 13 different institutes.

The survey not only provides an overview of the climatic conditions recorded over the previous five years, but also predicts the temperatures and rainfall patterns for the next five years.

El Niño

According to Omm estimates, there is an 86% chance - up 6% from the figure released in 2025 - that a year between 2026 and 2030 will take the place of 2024 and become the hottest on record.

Experts are especially worried about 2027. According to Leon Hermanson, the lead author of the report, next year could in fact be characterised by particularly high temperatures due to the arrival of El Niño, a climatic phenomenon that on average every five years, in December and January, causes a strong warming of the surface waters of the south-central Pacific Ocean.

The arrival of El Niño is expected by the end of 2026, which makes it plausible that it will be 2027 that surpasses the record of 2024.

Global temperatures

The survey predicts that in the period between 2026 and 2030, average annual global temperatures near the surface will be between 1.3 and 1.9 degrees above the 1850-1900 average. According to the WMO, there is a 91% probability that at least one year of the 2026-2030 period will see temperatures more than 1.5 degrees above the average of the last half-century of the 19th century.

This level was also temporarily exceeded in 2024, when the recorded temperature exceeded that threshold by 1.55 degrees. However, the Omm believes that there is less than a 1% probability that in one of these five years the temperature will exceed the average for the period 1850-1900 by two degrees.

Especially the Arctic will be affected by global warming. The Omm predicts that over the next five winters (November to March) Arctic temperatures will be 2.8 degrees higher than the average for the period 1991-2020: this is 3.5 times higher than the average of those recorded globally over the same time period. Sea ice is set to decline further. Between 2026 and 2035, the marines of Barents, Bering, and Okhotsk will be particularly affected.

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Precipitation

The World Meteorological Organisation report then indicates that between this year and 2030, in the five extended winter seasons (between November and March), it will rain more than average in the high latitudes in the northern hemisphere. In contrast, subtropical areas - particularly those in the Southern Hemisphere - are likely to see a decrease in rainfall.

The increase in precipitation in the tropics and high latitudes compared to 1991-2020 and the reduction of precipitation in the subtropics - especially in the southern hemisphere - is in line with expectations in the context of an increasingly warming climate.

In the period between May and September, between 2026 and 2030, it will rain more than average in northern Europe, Alaska, Siberia and the Sahel in sub-Saharan Africa, while summers in the Amazon will be drier in the same season.