Anti-Abiy alliance and troops in Somalia: Egypt steps up pressure on Ethiopia
Whilst the Horn of Africa is in turmoil, Cairo is strengthening its ties with its allies and bolstering its presence in Mogadishu
from our correspondent Alberto Magnani
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NAIROBI – The escalating exchange of accusations between Ethiopia and Eritrea in Tigray is pushing the Horn of Africa to the brink of open conflict, with echoes of the 2020–2022 Tigray War and the risk of hostilities spreading beyond their original borders. Against this backdrop, there is a player whose regional and extra-regional influence is on the rise: Egypt under President hhhh
Amid the latest tensions in northern Ethiopia, exacerbated by last week’s border skirmishes, Cairo has strengthened its presence in the Horn of Africa through a military and diplomatic push that consolidates its role and intensifies the pressure on Abiy Ahmed’s Ethiopia.
Alliances and troops: pressure from Cairo
The first move came on the political front with the four-party meeting held on 4 October in New El Alamein between Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan and Somalia, resulting in a communiqué that reaffirms more general principles such as ‘respect for sovereignty’ or more explicit claims: this is the case with the ‘exclusive responsibility’ of coastal states for the governance of the Red Sea. This is a not-so-veiled jab at Ethiopia under Abiy Ahmed Ali and its claims to access to the coast, considered one of the underlying objectives behind the recent border skirmishes with Eritrea.
On the military front, the local press reports that Egyptian troops are due to be deployed to Ceelcade, in Somalia, within the scope of the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia. The deployment is said to be taking place north of Mogadishu, 400 kilometres from the border with Ethiopia, marking the first such operation since the 2024 bilateral agreement between Egypt and Somalia. Cairo has not disclosed the (potential) numbers involved, but rumours have circulated almost in tandem with a report by Bloomberg regarding the withdrawal of Ethiopian troops from the same mission.
The proposal for an international link
Cairo’s dual push between Somalia and El-Alamein appears to converge on the same strategic horizon: multi-pronged pressure on Addis Ababa to curb its expansionist ambitions and to frame the bilateral dispute within a regional context, thereby calling into question the already precarious balance of power in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea.
