Ariston jumps at Piazza Affari, good performance in Q4

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)- Strong trading on Ariston Holding, which rallied double-digit on the Italian Stock Exchange to close up 7.85% at €4.284 after its 2025 accounts showed adjusted net income rising to €112.9 million, net revenues of €2.7 billion (+2.8%) and adjusted ebit at €193 million. In addition, the group will propose to shareholders a dividend of 10 cents per share (33% of adjusted net profit).

The numbers, explain the analysts of Banca Akros, are "in line with estimates and slightly better than expected profitability" and show that revenues, despite a negative exchange rate impact of -1.4%, "benefited from positive organic growth of +3% y/y thanks to the recovery of demand for heat pumps, particularly in Germany, which more than offset the weakness of the European gas market, as well as the positive trend in Water Heating in the Americas and some key Apac markets, despite the negative exchange rate impact. Finally, there was a positive contribution from external growth (+2.3%) thanks to the reconsolidation of Russia (EUR 15.1m) and the acquisitions of DDR and ZRE'. As far as forecasts are concerned, the experts believe that "based on the guidance, we set revenue 2026 at EUR 2,958.8 million. In terms of profitability, we confirm an adjusted ebit margin of 7.5%; adjusted net profit is therefore EUR 121.7 million (compared to the previous estimate of EUR 122.2 million)". In light of this, "our estimates allow us toconfirm the target price of EUR 5 per share, which implies a 2027 adjusted ev/ebit ratio of 9 times. At current prices, we confirm the Recommendation Accumulate: Ariston currently trades at an Ev/ebit 2027 of 8 times, lower than the average of the last five years (around 10.8 times)".

Equita is more cautious, according to which, with regard to guidance for 2026, it emphasises an 'organic growth in turnover between +1%/+4% (mid-point +2.5% compared to the previous +3.8%) with positive volumes and price-mix. Expected margins between 7-8%. In light of the guidance, we feel it is appropriate to position ourselves in the mid-point of the guidance and consequently reduce our organic growth expectations to +2.7% (from the previous +3.8%)". These changes "lead us to reduce adjusted ebit/adjusted EBIT 2026 by approximately -3/4% (similar reductions on 2027/28). Our adjusted ebit 2026 of 218 million incorporates about 10 million adjusted ebit from the consolidation of 6 million Riello. Target price -6% to EUR 4.6

According to the experts, "the fourth quarter showed strong execution by management (margins improved markedly) and the outlook, although moderately below expectations, does not substantially change the equity story based on a progressive improvement in turnover and margins". Finally, analysts point out, "after the deep negative reaction of the stock on the eve (-19%) Ariston is trading at 2027E Adj. Pe equal to 10 times, a multiple that we consider compressed".