Market Day

EU stock exchanges in the red without Wall Street's lighthouse, Milan closes -0.47%. Gas below 30 euro

Natural gas at lows since August in view of rising temperatures. China surprisingly leaves rates unchanged. Germany goes into recession. Euro stable under $1.1. Oil slows. Wall Street halts for Martin Luther King Day

La Borsa, gli indici del 15 gennaio 2024

3' min read

3' min read

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - After a balanced start, the European stocks archived their first session of the week, which saw the start of work at theWorld Economic in Davos, on the downside with the FTSE MIB closing below par; Paris is the worst European marketplace (CAC 40), not far behind Frankfurt (DAX 40). On the macro front, according to the numbers presented by the national statistics office Destatis, the German economy went into recession with GDP dropping by 0.3% in 2023, a clear reversal from the +1.8% in 2022. The figure, according to observers, is alarming because there is a risk that it could reverberate on economic trends throughout the Old Continent; nevertheless, it could presage a more accommodative attitude of the ECB on future rate cuts. Added to this is the closing of Wall Street for the Martin Luther King Day holiday.

Sales on banks, Saipem at the back

At Piazza Affari, sales on the banking sector (Banca Mps, Banco Bpm) and on Saipem after the administrative proceedings in Brazil. Also in the red was A2a): the Municipality of Milan has opened the door to the possibility of selling part of the public stake held in the company. At the top of the Ftse Mib Banca Mediolanum, followed by Inwit and Italgas.

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China's central bank leaves rates steady and injects liquidity

China's central bank unexpectedly kept key interest rates unchanged. Major commercial banks lowered deposit rates, a move seen as a way to leave room for further rate cuts. The People's Bank of China injected 995 billion yuan ($138.93 billion) of liquidity into the banking system through the one-year medium-term loan facility at an interest rate of 2.5%, the same rate as the previous operation; it also injected 89 billion yuan through seven-day reverse repurchase agreements at a rate of 1.8%. The move to maintain benchmark rates may disappoint the market, which has been expecting a rate cut this month, after commercial banks cut deposit rates last month to give the central bank more leeway.

Spread down to 155 points, yield up to 3.78%

The second part of the session was negative for the prices of government bonds traded on the Mts electronic secondary market. The retreat in prices did, however, produce a slight closing of the spread between the BTp and Bunds. At the close, the yield differential between the benchmark ten-year BTp (Isin IT0005560948) and the German ten-year peer maturity stood at 155 basis points, from 156 points at this morning's start (158 points at Friday's close). The drop in prices produced a rise in yields, with the Italian ten-year yield ending at 3.78 per cent (3.77 per cent at start and 3.72 per cent at Friday's close).

Gas drops to lowest since August, then regains 30 euro height

The price of natural gas falls below the EUR 30 per megawatt-hour mark. The last time this happened was on 8 August 2023, when the price marked EUR 29.81 per megawatt-hour at the opening. Contracts traded in Amsterdam expiring in February, after having fallen during the day to 29.6 euros per megawatt-hour, gave up 6 per cent and regained 30 euros. Sales on natural gas depend on expectations of rising temperatures next week in both Europe and the US, amid still high inventories: in Europe they are now 79.72% full, according to industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Euro stays below $1.1, oil slows

On the currency market, the euro-dollar exchange rate remains below 1.10 in line with Friday evening's levels (1.095). According to analysts at Ing, the greenback will remain in this range over the course of the week: "Recent better-than-expected US data have not triggered a rebound in the dollar and the consensus view that the currency will fall over the course of the year seems to be making investors inclined to sell on dollar rallies," they explained. Oil prices slowed with March Brent crude trading at $77.22 (-1.3%) a barrel and February Wti at $71.6 (-1.5%) a barrel. Supporting crude in recent weeks had been the risk that air strikes by the US and its allies against the Houthis would trigger a wider conflict and disrupt crude flows from the Middle East was balanced by weak fundamentals.

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