European stock markets rise cautiously; tech stocks shine in Milan. Countdown to US inflation figures

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The European stock markets are trading cautiously at the mid-session mark, against a backdrop of anticipation regarding US inflation. It will be interesting for the market to assess any implications the data may have for interest rates and, therefore, on the stance the Fed will adopt at its next meeting in September, with traders split down the middle between those betting on a 25-basis-point rise in interest rates and those favouring the status quo. Consequently, the FTSE MIB in Milan is rising cautiously, as is Frankfurt (DAX 30) and Madrid (IBEX 35), with Paris lagging behind (CAC 40). Wall Street futures are also on the rise, particularly those on the Nasdaq, thanks to the tech rally.

Technology stocks are once again leading the buying on the Milan Stock Exchange, with Prysmian and Stmicroelectronics topped the Milan stock exchange, after the quarterly results from US firms Super Micro Computer and CoreWeave (both rallying in pre-market trading on Wall Street) gave a fresh boost to confidence in AI. Utilities are also trading strongly, with Hera posting the sector’s best performance, whilst gains were also seen in the banking and asset management sectors: Azimut , Banco Bpm , Banca Mediolanum . At the bottom of the list, Diasorin,whilst the sell-off is also affecting the luxury sector (Brunello Cucinelli, Moncler )

On the energy front, conflicting reports are emerging from the Middle East, with Tehran reiterating that the Strait of Hormuz will not be reopened until all conditions have been met, whilst US President Donald Trump maintains that the US has ‘full control’ of the waterway, is causing oil prices to fluctuate. Thus, whilst the Turkish media are reporting on a US-Iran agreement to extend the ceasefire due to expire on 17 August, Brent is hovering around $88 a barrel, whilst WTI has fallen below $83. Meanwhile, gas in Amsterdam continues to rise, trading at around 60 euros per megawatt-hour (+2.9 per cent). Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency has revised downwards its estimate for global oil demand for 2026, in light of the conflict in the Middle East and the surge in hydrocarbon prices. The new estimate indicates a year-on-year decline of 1.6 million barrels per day (mb/d), compared with the previous July estimate, which had forecast a fall of 1 mb/d. The IEA forecasts that global oil consumption will stand at 103.29 mb/g in 2026, down from the 103.46 mb/g estimated last month.

Gold is rising again, with the spot price climbing back to $4,414 per ounce (+1%). In the foreign exchange market, the euro/dollar exchange rate stands at 1.1536 (down from 1.1540 at Tuesday’s close), whilst the euro/yen stands at 183.58 (down from 183.80) and the dollar/yen at 159.12 (down from 159.27).

Government bond yields traded on the MTS electronic secondary market are flat. Ten-year BTPs are virtually unchanged, but the spread with Bunds is narrowing slightly due to the greater weakness of German bonds. The yield spread between the Italian 10-year benchmark (1 July 2036) and the German bond of the same maturity (August 2036) stands at 78 basis points, down from 79 the previous day. The yield on the Italia 10-year benchmark stands at 3.94 per cent, unchanged from Tuesday’s close. The French OAT is yielding 3.97 per cent at the start of trading, whilst the Spanish Bonos is yielding 3.6 per cent.