‘Astronomy of Health’: tomorrow’s needs are already reflected in today’s data

Like starlight, demographic trends only become apparent years later: today’s crises stem from trends that began some time ago, and the care needs for the next twenty years are already evident in the figures

Around 2045, the baby-boomer generations will transition from being carers to care recipients, with fewer children to rely on and more often living alone. Already today, 14 per cent of those aged over 65 spend a week without any contact with other people, rising to 32 per cent among those aged over 85. Analysing these figures in good time will enable us to complement emergency management with a reform of care provision: professional roles, carers, digital tools and services rather than financial transfers.

The starlight we observe set off long before it reached us: what we see is a snapshot of events that have already taken place. The same applies to many social phenomena, the effects of which only become apparent years later. Demography is the clearest example of this. The people who will need care over the next twenty years have already been born and, for the most part, are already adults.

Today, public debate is forced to focus on immediate problems: the shortage of doctors and nurses, organisational crises, and the reimbursement of medicines. This is the consequence of issues that went unnoticed when they first arose: over the last fifteen years, the need for care has grown as the population has aged, whilst resources – starting with staffing levels – have not kept pace. These critical issues must be resolved first; however, resolving them is a prerequisite for tackling the generational shift.

The baby-boom generations currently shoulder the bulk of the care burden: there are 12.3 million family carers, equivalent to one in four adults. According to Istat forecasts, the number of people aged 65–74 will rise from 7 million to 9 million by 2039. Over the same period, the population aged between 50 and 64 – the age group whose children are currently looking after their parents – will fall by a quarter. For every 100 people in this age group, the number of people aged over 85 will rise from 17 in 2025 to 31 in 2045. Between 2039 and 2047, those who are currently providing care will themselves become care recipients, with fewer children to rely on and more often living alone: the number of people aged over 65 living alone will rise from 4.6 to 6.6 million by 2050. An increasing proportion of care will be provided by older people to other older people, and the part that families are unable to cope with will be taken on by formal care services.