Autonomy, how the majority and opposition stand on the referendum

The referendum abrogating the law on differentiated autonomy has been given the green light by the Supreme Court (even after the intervention of the Constitutional Court). Now the final word will fall to the Constitutional Court in January, which will have to decide whether to allow the consultation. Meanwhile, the opposition parties are preparing for the election campaign, aware that reaching the quorum will be a titanic task. The majority is more cautious, primarily Fratelli d'Italia and Forza Italia, who fear the impact of a consultation that risks pitting North against South.

The representatives of the League are those in the majority who have been most vocal. Both the leader, Matteo Salvini, and the father of differentiated autonomy, Roberto Calderoli, have said they are in favour of holding the consultation ('If there is to be a referendum, I can't wait,' were Salvini's words). At first glance, it might seem a paradox that the League is in favour of a referendum that wants to abolish one of its workhorses. However, one must read these statements together with those of the Lega's governor of Veneto Luca Zaia: 'I think it is the promoters of the referendum who should be more concerned. They will be the ones who will have to find the votes to repeal the law'. Translated, if there is a referendum, it is likely that those in favour of autonomy will give an indication not to go to the polls, adding their votes to those of the abstentionists (very high in recent years), making it practically impossible to reach the quorum of 50% plus one of those eligible. This would be an undoubted victory for the League.

In Fratelli d'Italia and Forza Italia they are much more cautious. Fdi has become the first party in the north, but has historical roots in Rome and the south. "If the majority of Italians go to vote in a referendum and say they don't agree with autonomy we will take note of it," said Giovanni Donzelli, head of organisation at Fratelli d'Italia. Forza Italia, then, has the highest percentage of votes in the South and has not spared criticism of the autonomy law and its application ("We will see what will be done," replied Antonio Tajani, leader of Fi, when asked if his party would be for abstention or going to vote). It is clear that for them the best solution would be for the Constitutional Court to reject the referendum, thus avoiding a consultation that would tear their electorates apart and raise tension with the League. Not to mention that the president of the Senate Ignazio La Russa (Fdi) has already said that he will go to vote in the referendum, just in case.

All oppositions are united in voting yes in the event of a referendum. But voices are also beginning to emerge that assess the negative impact that not reaching a quorum would have. The leader of Azione Carlo Calenda made this clear: 'If, as the promoters themselves consider probable, the quorum is not reached, Meloni will be able to legitimately claim that all the united opposition trade union and political forces are in the minority in the country'. Iv leader Matteo Renzi, however, hopes to put the government 'in trouble' anyway with an (almost certain) yes vote victory even without reaching the quorum. "Reaching a quorum in a repeal referendum is very difficult, I would say almost impossible in Italy. But in my opinion it is still worth trying,' admitted the centre-left Apulian governor, Michele Emiliano.

In trouble could fall especially the Pd. A red region like Emilia-Romagna is not insensitive to the issue of autonomy. The newly elected Pd Michele de Pascale said it clearly: 'But is it possible that on an issue like this we have to go to a languishing referendum, with the Pd that could see its voters in the North vote in favour and the opposite happen in the South? Isn't it better to stop for a moment?"