Middle East

'Imminent US-Israel conflict against Iran'. Axios: risk of full-scale war

The US imposes new visa restrictions on 18 Iranian officials. Rising tensions and massive military deployment indicate that an extended conflict could erupt soon

18 February 2026

Usa, Trump all'Iran: "Negozi accordo o prossimo attacco sarà molto peggiore"

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

US Secretary of StateMarco Rubio announced new visa restrictions on 18 Iranian regime officials and telecommunications leaders and their families. They are, the State Department explains in a note, "complicit in serious human rights violations, particularly those that inhibit Iranians' right to freedom of expression and peaceful assembly".

Meanwhile, the US-Iran conflict "could begin very soon", writes the US website Axios in the aftermath of the second round of talks between the US and Iran, citing sources that it would be "a joint US-Israel campaign of a much larger scale than the 12-day war" of last June, which could last "weeks". "The Trump administration is closer to a full-scale war in the Middle East than most Americans believe," Axios writes.

L’arte del compromesso nel disordine globale

Axios recalls that the military forces sent by the Trump administration to the region now include 'two aircraft carriers, a dozen warships, hundreds of fighter jets, and multiple air defence systems', pointing out that 'in the last 24 hours alone, an additional 50 fighter jets, F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s, have headed to the region'. A strengthening of military pressure coupled with the president's statements that 'make it difficult for Trump to back down without major concessions from Iran on its nuclear programme'.

Lavrov, new attack would have disastrous consequences for region

The announced winds of war over Iran are causing Russia to take a stand. A new attack, says Russian Foreign Minister Sergej Lavrov, would have 'disastrous consequences'. "Attacks against Iran have already taken place: against nuclear facilities under the control of the IAEA. There have been real risks of a nuclear incident," Lavrov explained in an interview with Al-Arabiya, quoted by Ria Novosti.

Iran tra armata Usa e dialogo

Usa ready for a war scenario

Two Israeli officials told Axios that the Israeli government is 'preparing for a war scenario within days'. Some American sources said the US might need more time, but others claimed the timeframe could be shorter. "The leader is getting fed up. Some people around him are warning him against declaring war on Iran, but I think there's a 90 per cent chance we'll see concrete action in the next few weeks," said a Trump adviser.

At the end of talks held yesterday in Geneva by the US and Iran, the two sides reported 'progress', with US officials saying that 'Iran must submit a detailed proposal within two weeks'. Axios recalls that last 19 June the White House set a two-week window to decide between further talks or attacks and three days later launched Operation Midnight Hammer. "There is no evidence that a diplomatic breakthrough with Iran is on the horizon. But there is growing evidence that a war is imminent,' Axios concluded.

New exercises and dialogue tests

The Tehran regime promises dialogue but continues military exercises. In fact, the commander of the Islamic Republic Navy's First Naval District, Hassan Maghsoodloo, announced that a joint naval exercise will be held tomorrowwith Russia in the Sea of Oman, which is located near the Strait of Hormuz, and the northern Indian Ocean. The announcement comes as the Islamic Revolution Guards Navy has been holding a military exercise in the Strait of Hormuz since Monday, and the US has deployed the aircraft carrier Lincoln and other military assets in Middle Eastern waters since January, following tensions triggered by Iranian anti-government protests.

The website of the US Federal Aviation Administration reports that Iran has issued a 'Notam' - a warning to pilots and airlines - in which it informs them that rocket launches are expected tomorrow in parts of its southern territory: The Times of Israel writes this, pointing out that Iran has conducted naval exercises this week in the Strait of Hormuz and that a joint naval exercise with Russia is expected tomorrow.

Iranian diplomatic chief leaves the dialogue open: "Iran is working out a coherent framework for pursuing future talks with the United States," Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said during a telephone conversation with International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi. Araghchi and Grossi, who met in Geneva the day before the second round of indirect talks between Iran and the US, held on Tuesday 17 February in Switzerland, discussed the results of the talks during the phone conversation. According to Irna, Grossi positively assessed the outcome of the talks and expressed the IAA's readiness to provide support and cooperation in developing the framework for future talks between Iran and the US.

Less conciliatory were the words of a member of the US administration: the US will prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons "one way or another", warnedUS Energy Secretary Chris Wright. President Donald Trump "firmly believes that we cannot have a nuclear-armed Iran," Wright told reporters in Paris on the sidelines of the International Energy Agency meetings. "They have been very clear about what they would do with nuclear weapons. It is completely unacceptable," Wright said.

Iran working to protect its nuclear sites against possible attacks

In this scenario, Iran is reportedly conducting work at its nuclear sites to better protect them from attack. According to satellite imagery published and analysed by the IInstitute for Science and International Security, a Washington-based think tank, Tehran has strengthened and consolidated tunnel entrances at the Isfahan site - where Iran is believed to have stored much of its highly enriched uranium and which was heavily damaged by US and Israeli attacks last June - and at a deep underground complex known as Pickaxe Mountain.

The Pickaxe tunnels, on which, according to Western officials, Iran has been working for years, were not targeted by the US or Israel last summer. According to Western and Israeli sources, Tehran was developing these tunnels to carry out undeclared nuclear activities, including possible uranium enrichment. The images show the movement of vehicles, including earth moving trucks, concrete mixers and cranes, to pour cement and pile rock and soil on the tunnel entrances. According to the institute, the work is aimed at 'mitigating possible air strikes and making it difficult for special forces tasked with seizing or destroying any highly enriched uranium stored inside' to gain access by land. The institute also noted that Iran had recently built a concrete structure around a building at the Parchin military site, where nuclear-related activities had been conducted. Israel had bombed the site in 2024.