Banco BPM surges on the stock market amid speculation about a move by Unicredit and Agricole

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)- Banks on the rise on the Milan Stock Exchange, with Banco Bpm leading the way. The European Central Bank’s interest rate adjustment has put the sector back in the spotlight, and it is expected to continue generating profits. Furthermore, in Italia, shares in the sector are being buoyed by the ongoing restructuring, as part of the bid to take over Intesa Sanpaolo on Banca Monte Paschi Siena and the defence of the Siena-based bank through the dual bid submitted to Banco BPM, which has already been rejected by the bank, and Banca Banca Generali (+0.6 per cent), which is under scrutiny by its parent company Generali (+0.3 per cent). Furthermore, optimism was fuelled today by the 2029 plan presented by the French bank Societe Generale , which was rewarded on the Paris Stock Exchange.

Meanwhile, the spotlight has once again been turned on the Milan-based bank following an article published last Saturday by Il Sole 24 Ore, according to which Unicredit and Credit Agricole are reported to have put aside their long-standing differences in order to initiate a dialogue and explore a joint move regarding the bank led by Giuseppe Castagna. The rumour immediately sparked speculation.

It should be noted that Unicredit had attempted a takeover of Banco BPM, but then backed down when faced with the golden power exercised by the Government, whilst the French bank Crédit Agricole, in a short space of time, came within a hair’s breadth of holding 30 per cent of the bank’s capital, exerting pressure and expressing their opposition to an alliance between Banco Bpm and MPS whilst, at the same time, pushing for a merger between the Milan-based bank and the French bank’s Italian assets. A deal involving Banco Bpm would obviously also involve its subsidiary Anima, in which the Milan-based bank holds an 89.95 per cent stake.

Returning to Société Générale, the bank’s senior management has announced that over the coming years, up to 2029, they will continue to distribute 50 per cent of reported net profit and will distribute any capital in excess of a Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio of 13 per cent. Thus, with a forecast of 3 per cent average annual revenue growth over the period in question, the amount to be distributed to shareholders could exceed 21 billion euros. It was also stated that the bank will continue its cost-cutting policy, with a target of 2 per cent by 2026, estimating in particular a reduction of €400 million in external purchases and services and €500 million in IT expenditure.

As regards the physical network in France, the group intends to continue reducing overheads by ‘rationalising’ the number of branches and phasing out ‘a level of regional supervision’, a process currently under way. The group, which has already cut thousands of jobs over the last three years, expects the number of employees to fall by 2029 due to ‘natural staff turnover’.