Banks, the great risk 2025: follow the stock trends
Here is how the hypothesis of mergers between Italian banks is changing the economy and the Ftse Mib index in Piazza Affari. Here, by clicking on the banks mentioned, you can follow the performance of their respective stocks
by Enrico Miele
2' min read
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2' min read
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - There are those who use the classic metaphor of risk and those who prefer that of dominoes. Or it may sound like a thriller or a crime novel. Whichever way you want to call it, the merger process between the main Italian banks, which began months ago, is changing the assets and weights, including geographical ones, of the Italian economy, from the real one (which passes through the credit institutions' loans to businesses) to the more purely financial one (given that in Piazza Affari banks weigh more than all other sectors on the performance of the FTSE MIB).
The keyword of 2025 is therefore Ops (while only that of the Banco Bpm on Anima Holding was technically an Opa), i.e. the reciprocal exchange of shares through which Unicredit launched itself to conquer the institution of Piazza Meda (the offer started on April 28), then Banca Mps on Mediobanca (expected to launch from the end of June) and Bper on the Banca Popolare di Sondrio (also in the summer, with Unipol as a pivot because it is the main shareholder of both).
In all three cases, the boards of directors of the prey on duty rejected the offer, in more or less polemical tones. It is a sign that the road to aggregations is not painless, nor is it without obstacles. With traders wondering about possible last-minute raises to convince shareholders and the golden power that has put, at least in one case, that of UniCredit's ops, very precise stakes in the merger. Not to mention the presence of Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone and the holding Delfin of the Del Vecchio family in almost all the games that matter, from Rocca Salimbeni to Piazzetta Cuccia.
The latest move in chronological order is by Alberto Nagel who, partly to "free" Mediobanca from its embrace with Generali, will try to sell its 13% of the Leone di Trieste in exchange forBanca Generali. The first - without going as far as Intesa Sanpaolo, which incorporated Ubi in the now distant 2020 - was instead that of Andrea Orcel, who crossed the Alps to try to conquer the German Commerzbank, Germany's second largest institution, provoking the wrath of the government and local trade unions. It was the same in Spain, where Banco Sabadell rejected the proposed merger of Bbva and politics got in the way. Among the "small" companies at Piazza Affari to be recorded also the Opas of Banca Ifis onIllimity Bank.
