Banks in short order, for Unicredit the risk cools down

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Banks under the lens at Piazza Affari, while waiting for developments on the consolidation process underway. Stocks are proceeding in no particular order. Unicredit rises, on the day the bank's CEO, Andrea Orcel, said that the "probability" that UniCredit will carry out the Ops on Banco Bpm "at the moment, as I see it, are 20% or less" because "it's all linked" to whether "the government clarifies or does not clarify" the controversial aspects linked to golden power. The manager also explained that the extension of the Ops by about a month (it was supposed to expire in June, instead it is postponed to 23 July) is because 'we are trying to dialogue' to clarify the aspects of golden power, and then 'still have time to present an offer afterwards'.

In the meantime, however, the publication of the TAR (Regional Administrative Court) ruling on Banco Bpm's appeal on the suspension of the offer period by Consob is also expected in the coming days, which if favourable could bring forward the end of the offer period from the current 23 July to mid-July. Also with regard to Unicredit, the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, in a letter to Commerzbank's top management, described as "hostile" Unicredit's move to first purchase 10% of the capital and then 30% through derivatives, with the intention of aggregating the two institutions. On the other hand, Orcel himself, on the occasion of the conference call with the financial community for the first-quarter accounts, had recalled that the 10% stake had been purchased "largely by the German government in a transparent and competitive process" and that for the subsequent steps, authorisations had been requested from the competent authorities.

Analysts, meanwhile, are also wondering about the repercussions that the new round of sanctions on Russia being considered by the European Commission might have, considering that Unicredit has an asset in the country that has long been under the authorities' lens. "We believe that the M&A scenario, especially for Unicredit, is becoming more complicated due to the contrary opinions of both the German and Italian governments," Intermonte's analysts commented this morning, pointing out that in any case, on the German front, "Unicredit's management would have time and patience to decide how to proceed on Commerzbank". Intemonte, however, confirms its 'Neutral' rating with a EUR 50 price target on Unicredit.

Still on the subject of banks, the spotlight is still on Mediobanca , while the shareholders' meeting is approaching, which on Monday will be called upon to decide whether to give the green light to the takeover bid proposed by the institution on Banca Generali. A record attendance is looming at the meeting, with participation around 80%. The outcome, however, is uncertain, although the proxy advisors have expressed a favourable opinion of the transaction. It could result in a battle to the last vote. It should be remembered that today the boards of Banca Mediolanum and Mediolanum Vita are meeting to decide how to vote at the shareholders' meeting, with a combined 3.5% stake. Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone, a shareholder within a whisker of Mediobanca's 10 per cent stake, had recentlyasked for a postponement of the shareholders' meeting as the terms of the commercial partnership to be signed between Mediobanca, Banca Generali and Generali are not known. Also Luigi Lovaglio, ceo of Banca Mps , the bank that is trying to conquer Mediobanca itself, in an interview with Sky had placed the accent on the fact that "the economics" of the operation are not known.