ECB: Spain’s de Cos and the Netherlands’ Knot in the running to succeed Lagarde: who are the two contenders?

De Cos has a reputation for favouring a more expansionary monetary policy, paying greater attention to the effects of monetary policy on economic growth. This moderate “dovish” stance aligns him more closely with the policies of southern European countries, which are calling for greater fiscal flexibility. His policy places greater emphasis on financial stability and the real economy.

De Cos has been described by the Spanish Minister for the Economy Carlos Cuerpo as combining an extraordinary knowledge of economic, fiscal and monetary policy with extensive expertise in the international banking sector and financial stability. As Governor of the Bank of Spain and Chair of the Basel Committee, he has earned ‘a reputation for technical rigour and the ability to bring teams together and build consensus’.

Born in 1967, Klaas Knot is an economist and academic with a long career in financial regulation. For 14 years he headed the Dutch Central Bank and is known for having chaired the Financial Stability Board, an international body that monitors financial stability, as well as having served as a member of the Governing Council of the ECB.

He is the Netherlands’ official candidate to succeed Christine Lagarde as head of the European Central Bank following her announcement on 7 February 2027 that she intends to step down, almost nine months before the end of her term of office. 

Knot has a reputation as an uncompromising technocrat who takes a rigorous approach to risk management and systemic stability. A “hawk” who will most likely aim to maintain a tight monetary policy to counter inflationary pressures in European markets. Knot is also an advocate of a “frugal” economic policy characterised by strong fiscal discipline and low debt.  

The appointment process, however, will not be straightforward, given that two further posts on the ECB’s Executive Board will need to be filled: that of Isabel Schnabel (German, who will step down on 3 January 2027 to join the International Monetary Fund) and that of Chief Economist Philip Lane (Irish, whose term expires at the end of May).

Knot’s chances hinge on the interplay of the three sets of negotiations between France and Germany regarding these three posts. An unwritten rule prevents any one country from having two representatives on the six-member executive committee.

If Germany were to retain the markets portfolio (currently held by Schnabel) and France were to secure the post of chief economist (currently held by Lane), the Dutchman’s chances would improve: this is the deal which, according to rumours, Paris is said to have in mind to support him.