Between geopolitical tensions and technological innovation the future of global payments is at stake

There are three structural trends on which the transformation of the payment world hinges, according to the report.

The first is the fragmentation and regionalisation of the ecosystem, underpinned by ongoing geopolitical tensions and the push for 'payment sovereignty', with technology enabling the growth of predominantly local and regional payment systems as an alternative to traditional global infrastructures. On the other hand, the pendulum is swinging further and further away from yesterday's universalism. In Europe, the focus is on domestic schemes and intra-EU interoperability; in Asia, connections between national instant systems are expanding; in Latin America, the national Pix system is setting the pace beyond Brazil's borders.

The trajectory can either lead to a multimodal ecosystem with global 'passkeys', or to heightened fragmentation that erodes global standards. Both scenarios "mark a departure from the unified global payments landscape of the past, leading to increased fragmentation, complexity and localised solutions. For businesses and financial institutions, adapting to this new reality will require flexibility, innovation and a deep understanding of the forces driving the movement of money'.

The second force is the acceleration of stablecoins and, more generally, tokenized money. Although volumes remain a fraction of global payments, issuance has doubled since early 2024 and use cases are expanding: 'Perhaps the most compelling reason to adopt stablecoins is the growing demand for their use in concrete applications. Although they initially gained popularity in more niche areas such as the settlement of cryptocurrency transactions, their potential is now being recognised in a wider range of use cases: tokenized deposits can allow customers to earn intraday returns while being immediately accessible; stablecoins can provide an alternative way to settle cross-border payments by providing an 'always-on' real-time version of the corresponding banking network; and in regions with volatile currencies, stablecoins backed by major global currencies can offer consumers a hedge against inflation. Institutional uses are beginning to emerge, such as B2B treasury management, supply chain financing and repurchase agreements. In addition, the 'programmable' nature of stablecoins may allow for new use cases, including the resolution of escrow issues and the possibility of limiting government benefits to certain spending categories."

All over the world, regulatory curbs are being tightened with regard to licensing, anti-money laundering and the thorny topic of reserves: for instruments such as stablecoins that must ensure convertibility on par with traditional currencies, certification and liquidity availability become crucial to avoid instability. International financial institutions continue to denounce the high risks to the global system that are rooted in the fragility of issuers without full reserves and the possible domino effects from coverage gaps, but also from regulatory inconsistency between jurisdictions.

As a third trend of change, artificial intelligence cannot be overlooked, from 'behind-the-scenes' productivity to agent-based AI that starts managing payment decisions instead of the user. Today, AI is mainly used to optimise authorisation paths, automate reconciliations and settlements, enhance anti-fraud and risk management. Tomorrow it will shift the competitive front: 'Agent AI creates a new battleground at the edge, where agents can select, optimise and transact on behalf of humans'.

Early numbers testify to the growing relevance of the new technological frontier: 10 per cent of consumers already use AI to initiate shopping and one in five say they are comfortable with having an agent make a purchase. Tomorrow it will be the agent operators who will define the buying process by closing it autonomously with the payment system that is most convenient for the consumer, be it card or wallet with cashback, 'buy now pay later' or cryptocurrency.

Bcg goes so far as to predict that over the next few years more than $1 trillion, or about 50 per cent of today's total ecommerce spending, could be serviced by agents, with early adoption focused on more routine purchases such as groceries, restaurant orders and personal care products.

The fragmentation of payment systems thus intersects with the multiplication of instruments. If today people are accustomed to having to choose between cash and a digital form of money, which already differentiates between cards and digital wallets, increasingly in a contactless manner, tomorrow the instruments will multiply: cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, flexible, instalable and programmable payments, account-to-account. All the way to completely invisible systems, where you will pay without even taking your smartphone out of your pocket.