Between psychosis and real duties, brand strategies to reassure markets

From Canada to the rest of the world and Italy. It is the time of the economics of uncertainty, resulting in defensive marketing campaigns.

On the other hand, international trade is changing: in the last few hours the World advertising research centre has revised downwards its forecast on the advertising market trend, which is now estimated at +6.7% for this year for a total of USD 1.15 trillion and a negative revision of almost one percentage point compared to the forecast.

Meanwhile, a total reduction of USD 20 billion is assumed for 2026. "The mood of the markets is mainly affected by the overall uncertainty," says Charles De Boissezon, head of equity strategies at Société générale.

Thus the tightening of tariffs also rewrites storytelling and customer relations for those brands operating in international markets. For companies of excellence - even small and medium-sized ones that export abroad - it is a complex and uncertain phase.

"But uncertainty and complexity are typical elements of all businesses today. In today's markets, companies can only survive if they are able to govern and absorb this growing complexity. This can be done by carefully diversifying the markets the company addresses, avoiding focusing on just a few that can quickly become high-risk. Let us remember that already in Trump's first term we had a very restrictive tariff policy to which companies were able to react. For example, some companies that in the past exported wine and oil to the US, now have vineyards and olive groves locally, exporting the production know-how and making the products there to avoid the duties. They have turned uncertainty and risk into a competitive advantage that is difficult for competitors to imitate in a short time,' says economist Sandro Castaldo, professor of marketing at Bocconi University.

The challenge is also to make the possible price increase understood by trying to describe the unstable geopolitical context and the economic repercussions. In this way, the butterfly effect that affects price and thus consumer purchasing choices must be explained.

"The recipe is always the same: diversify risk and carefully manage sudden changes. It is also necessary to constantly monitor market trends and the emergence of high-impact situations, calculating the probability of occurrence of adverse events and predicting the intensity of their impact on the company's business. Scenario analysis and forecasting become fundamental capabilities. Actually, they already were in the past, it is just that some companies, especially smaller ones, have not always developed this capacity for analysis, risk management and environmental scanning. Let's say they relied more on intuition and luck,' Castaldo points out.

But beware. In order not to make mistakes, there are precedents to be inspired by and thus be able to protect one's business by reassuring customers and informing them correctly. "The example of Trump's first term can be a useful benchmark. Eight years ago there were tariffs and border closures similar to what we see today and companies adapted, some even took advantage of them to build a competitive advantage over their competitors. The flexibility of our SMEs and the entrepreneurial skills we are recognised for could be used to exploit this situation of uncertainty, to search for new markets and find new ways to consolidate our presence in the more uncertain and difficult ones,' says Castaldo.

Turning a critical issue into a critical success factor, in short. Even if what is on the horizon in the very near future is that the markets, with this pressure, will be more closed and generate a return to the past with the enhancement of domestic economies.

"The correct answer to deal with all this lies in being glocal. Business today is played out between the ability to preside over local, sometimes even regional or provincial markets, and the need to look at the whole world. Probably in the past the pendulum swung too far towards globalisation at any cost. Today we need to mitigate this tendency by exploring new markets and enhancing localism. In short, we need to adopt a good mix, which is always the right recipe,' Castaldo concludes.