Bff Bank, stock market remains on high alert but analysts consider the institution to be worth twice as much
Nearly 800 million market cap lost in two sessions, behind the unexpected resignation of former CEO Belingheri emerges a clash with the board
by Luca Davi
The earthquake at the top of Bff Bank continues to hold sway in the market. Also yesterday (Tuesday 3), the payment specialist bank's shares fell heavily, by 8%, bringing the price down to EUR 4.14. A drop that adds to the 44% collapse recorded the previous day. Today it will be seen whether the stock will rebound or not. The fact remains that, in two days, 35 million pieces of stock have changed hands, equivalent to around 20% of the market capitalisation.
Just a few days before the announcement of its 2025 accounts (due on 10 February), the bank specialising in the management and non-recourse purchase of trade receivables from the public administration has unsettled investors by setting off a series of alerts: extraordinary provisions on 2025, a profit warning on 2026 targets, and a restatement of the 2024 accounts. All this was made all the more striking by a change at the top: the historic CEO, Massimiliano Belingheri, surprisingly took a step back, leaving the delegations to the CFO Giuseppe Sica, who will assume executive powers.
Analysts in no particular order
The stock market price, it must be said, clashes with analysts' valuations, who continue to revise their ratings on the stock but maintain an average target price of EUR 8.68, according to the Bloomberg consensus, a value substantially double the current price. Moreover, with a price/earnings ratio to 2026 estimated at around 5-6 times, the stock may have exceeded what is justified by fundamentals alone. Bff Bank is now capitalised at just EUR 800m, compared to EUR 2.2bn in April 2024, while the price/earnings ratio is now 1x, compared to 2.7x last year.
The divergence of market readings, however, is not lacking. Intesa Sanpaolo and Jefferies indicate a target price of EUR 12, with a buy rating. Equita, on the other hand, substantially halved the target price to EUR 6. Kepler Cheuvreux also cut its target price from EUR 10.30 to EUR 5. Banca Akros suspended the rating. These signals confirm that even in the world of business houses there is great uncertainty about the bank's future.
The points of uncertainty
The bank has initiated de-risking actions on the factoring portfolio in view of a (possible) securitisation, resulting in an extraordinary provision for 2025 of about EUR 95 million. The critical point is that the write-downs relate to a large loan portfolio of about EUR 400 million, towards the public sector, and are linked to unfavourable judgments that in 98% of cases have reached the Appellate Court. "It has not been clarified how many write-downs refer to the perimeter of the contagious portfolio," Equita analysts explain.
