Bmw cuts earnings estimates despite sales spurt

The German group Bmw revised down its financial results estimates for 2025, signalling a more difficult environment on the margins and cash flow front, despite the overall recovery in sales. Weakness in the Chinese market, tariffs on imports to the US and the postponement of customs reimbursements are weighing heavily, which will reduce the expected cash flow for this year.

The Munich-based company now expects a slight drop in pre-tax profit compared to 2024, whereas it previously estimated stable results. The profitability of the automotive business has also been downgraded: the return on capital employed is expected to be between 8% and 10%, compared to the previous range of 9% to 13%. The new estimates reflect rising operating costs and difficulties in China, where consumers are increasingly turning to electric models from local brands, which are more competitive in price and technology.

Bmw also expects that customs refunds from the US and German authorities, amounting to several hundred million euros, will only be collected in 2026. As a result, thefree cash flow of the automotive division for 2025 is estimated at more than EUR 2.5 billion, about half of the previously forecast EUR 5 billion. The dividend policy remains unchanged, with a payout ratio of between 30% and 40% of consolidated net profit, and the continuation of the share buy-back programme to support shareholder remuneration.

Behind the contrast between rising volumes and falling profits is a mix of structural and cyclical factors. The Munich-based company is growing mainly in Europe and the United States, where average margins are lower than in the more profitable models sold in Asia. In China, the group's most profitable market, competitive pressure from local electric vehicle manufacturers has forced the German company to increase discounts and dealer contributions, eroding margins. Added to this are US tariffs, which have increased costs, and the heavy investment linked to the launch of the new Neue Klasse electric platform, expected in 2026.

Sul fronte commerciale, però, i segnali sono positivi: nel terzo trimestre il gruppo ha invertito la tendenza negativa con 588.300 vetture consegnate, in aumento dell’8,8% rispetto allo stesso periodo del 2024. È il primo rialzo in un anno e mezzo, trainato dal marchio BMW (+5,7%), da Mini (+33%) e da Rolls-Royce (+13%). Le vendite sono cresciute in Europa (+9%) e negli Stati Uniti (+24%), nonostante i dazi introdotti da Washington, mentre la Cina resta il fianco debole (-0,4%). Come detto in precedenza, la Cina è il mercato chiave per la redditività, non tanto per i volumi in sé, ma per i margini elevati sui modelli premium. Oggi, però, la concorrenza interna nel segmento elettrico (Byd, Nio, Xpeng, Li Auto) e la corsa agli sconti hanno eroso quella redditività.