Markets

Record-breaking stock markets in the first week of August, fuelled by quarterly results and a sense of calm. Milan (+3%) was the top performer

The FTSE MIB set a new closing record on the final trading day of the week. Meanwhile, the unexpected fall in US jobs in July could prompt the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance on interest rates. Brent crude down 7.4% to $83.5 over the five trading sessions

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4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - A series of positive quarterly results, signs of a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a resurgence in tech buying and US employment figures that have allayed fears of monetary tightening by the Fed. These are the factors that have characterised a record-breaking week for European stock markets. Against this backdrop, the FTSE MIB in Milan took the lead across the Old Continent for the eighth week, with gains of 3%, after hitting a new intraday high of 54,024 points in recent days and closing today at 53,717 points. Paris (+2.8%), Frankfurt (+2.4%), Madrid (+2%) and Amsterdam (+1.1%) also ended the week at record highs with positive returns, whilst London (+0.3%) remained slightly behind.

In the equity market, buying activity favoured the defence sector, with Leonardo (+5.3%) and Avio standing out on the Milan Stock Exchange, having risen by 13% over the last five trading sessions. Next on the podium is BPM (+7.8%), fresh from quarterly results that beat estimates and an upward revision of earnings and dividend forecasts. The return of confidence in the tech sector (sector sub-index up 6.2%) then boosted ST (+5.6%), whilst Diasorin (+4.9%) benefited from the long-term positive impact of its financial results. On the flip side, the weakness in oil (WTI down 7.5% to $78.25 per barrel and Brent down 7.4% to $83.5) and gas (-7.4% on the TTF to €55.7 per MWh) weighed on Eni (-2.9%) and Tenaris (-7.2%), the latter of which, moreover, provided disappointing guidance to the market yesterday. Profit-taking, meanwhile, affected Amplifon (-1.6%), Stellantis (-3.5%) and Fincantieri (-5%).

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Finally, in the foreign exchange market, the euro/dollar exchange rate remained largely unchanged over the week (+0.3% to 1.559), whilst gold jumped by 7.4% to $4,328, regaining its mid-June highs.

Europe hits highs on Friday, all eyes on Hormuz

 European stock markets closed the first week of August on a note of cautious optimism, all essentially at record highs. Investors have been focusing on the corporate earnings season, which is now drawing to a close, whilst the market continues to assess the mixed news coming out of the Middle East. Amid this whirlwind of news, the markets have been trying to find their bearings, with European indices (after several shifts in direction) closing on a moderate note, yet still close to record highs. Milan thus posted a gain of +0.06% at 53,717 points, setting a new closing high. Elsewhere in Europe, Frankfurt closed up 0.69%, Paris up 0.17% and London up 0.3%.

Turning to geopolitics, US President Donald Trump has confirmed that negotiations between Iran and Oman ‘are proceeding’. Furthermore, according to a senior official quoted by Al Arabiya and Al Hadath, Iran and Oman have agreed on the broad outlines of a temporary opening of the Strait of Hormuz, pending a permanent solution. The proposed agreement would last for 60 days and aim to restore shipping traffic, with no transit fees to be levied on vessels. On the other hand, however, the Iranian state news agency published a draft of the agreement yesterday which sets out restrictive conditions for shipping traffic through the strait.

Wall Street rises, focus on US employment

Wall Street indices are up, following a worse-than-expected jobs report. The unexpected fall in jobs could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in September, rather than raising them. Today’s US employment figures were particularly significant, with a loss of 23,000 jobs in July (below expectations of a gain of 83,000), and unemployment falling to 4.1 per cent (against estimates of 4.2 per cent). This new data “is likely to dampen market expectations of a rate rise by the US central bank”, write the experts at Nationwide. However, the focus remains on inflation: “If the figures for the coming months turn out to be high,” the experts say, “the likelihood of further rate rises could increase.”

On the stock market, Airbnb soars after the company reported better-than-expected results in terms of turnover and profits. Also worth noting is the strong performance of Space Exploration Technologies, following a difficult period and the release of its financial results this week.

Chip buying returns to the Milan Stock Exchange

On the stock market, tech shares were back in favour at the close of the week in Milan, with St (+3.1%) leading the way, followed by Prysmian (+1.2%). Berenberg today upgraded its rating on the cable manufacturer’s shares to ‘Buy’ from ‘Hold’, with the target price rising to €150 from the previous €130. There was also buying interest in Diasorin (+1.2%). Quarterly results also remain in the spotlight, with markets reacting largely cautiously today, after Mediobanca (-0.4%) reported record half-year results on Thursday after markets closed, and Generali (-0.04%) saw little movement despite exceeding expectations. This morning it was the turn of Unipol (-0.8%), which posted a 42 per cent rise in profit to 1.06 billion, and MPS (+0.2%), which in the first half of the year surpassed the one-billion mark in profits (+25 per cent). Tenaris saw a modest rebound (+0.7%), having lost over 7% the previous day, weighed down by falling profits in the second quarter. The luxury sector closed weakly, with profit-taking on Cucinelli (-2.6%). Bringing up the rear, amongst others, were Nexi (-2%) and Fincantieri (-2.5%).

Crude oil prices fluctuate, with Brent at $83 per barrel

Oil prices have been volatile: after rising in the early part of the trading session, they turned lower before climbing again. October Brent is now trading around $83 a barrel, whilst the equivalent WTI is at around $78. The gas prices in Amsterdam have remained largely unchanged, at around 55 euros per megawatt-hour.

Euro above 1.15 dollars, gold still on the rise

In the currency markets, the euro is trading at 1.1554 dollars (1.1522 yesterday) and at 182.2 yen (182.5). Meanwhile, the US dollar is trading at 157.7 yen (down from 158.4). Gold is still rising strongly, with the spot price above $4,300 an ounce. Bitcoin is also performing well, trading at around $65,000.

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Spread closes lower at 77 points

The spread between BTp and Bund closed slightly lower. At the close of trading on the secondary market, the yield spread between the benchmark 10-year BTp and its German counterpart stood at 77 basis points, down from 78 basis points at yesterday’s close. The yield on the benchmark 10-year BTp was also down slightly, closing at 3.89 per cent, down one basis point on the previous close.

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