Markets

EU stock markets cautious amid US-Iran deadlock and surge in crude oil prices. Eni shares rise in Milan

Oil prices surge after Trump rejects the truce; Brent tops $108. The dollar is close to a two-month high. The spread remains at 92 points, with the yield at 4.54 per cent

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - After midday, the European stock markets are continuing to trade cautiously. On the one hand, the markets are under pressure from a further rise in oil prices following the deadlock in negotiations between the United States and Iran; on the other, attention remains firmly focused on government bond yields. As a result, the FTSE MIB in Milan, the CAC 40 in Paris, the DAX 40 in Frankfurt, the IBEX 35 in Madrid, the AEX in Amsterdam and the FTSE 100 in London. Wall Street futures are down, signalling a negative start for the US stock market.

On the other hand, prices are also being supported by the resilience of economic activity, thanks in particular to investment in artificial intelligence, which points to another round of strong corporate results. On the monetary policy front, meanwhile, the market considers a further Fed rate rise next month to be 68 per cent likely, according to CME FedWatch data.

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Eni’s share price rises; CEO rules out possibility of additional taxation

Buying in Eni on the Milan Stock Exchange, in the wake of rising oil prices and following the decision to cap fuel prices in Italia, which analysts say reduces the likelihood of the government imposing additional taxes. On the oil front, the price per barrel has risen again after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for a truce and Tehran, in response, emphasised that it has no intention of softening its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Eni has also announced a price cap on fuel sold through the Enilive network in Italia, set at 2.19 euros per litre for diesel and 1.99 for petrol. “We estimate a negative economic impact for Eni in the region of 85–100 million for one month’s application, based on fuel sales in Italia in the fourth quarter of 2025, amounting to approximately 1.4 million tonnes,” write the analysts at Equita, noting that if the cap were extended to cover the entire fourth quarter, “the impact could rise to around 250–300 million”.

I mercati a metà seduta

Amplifon and Stellantis in the spotlight, with TIM bringing up the rear

Among the leading Milanese stocks, buying interest is focused on Amplifon , with Equita expecting solid organic growth and a significant expansion in margins in the third quarter, Stellantis and Ferrari, which is also benefiting from the strong performance of the luxury sector with Brunello Cucinelli and Moncler . In the red, however, were Telecom Italia , following the conclusion of the takeover bid by Poste Italiane . Down Prysmian and Technoprobe; banks are also trading below par. Outside the main index, Trevi Fin Ind rises by more than three points following the relaunch of Icop’s public offer, whilst Danieli & C falls by over 12 points following the publication of its financial results.

Dollar nears two-month high

In the foreign exchange market, the dollar remains close to its two-month highs and is trading at 1.1377 to the euro, down from 1.1395 at Friday’s close. The yen is strengthening after Deputy Finance Minister Atsushi Mimura noted that the Japanese authorities had sent a ‘very clear’ signal against the currency’s weakness: the Japanese currency is trading at 157.07 to the dollar (down from 157.33) and 178.59 to the euro (down from 179.30).

Oil prices surge after Trump rules out a ceasefire; Brent tops $108

On the energy front, the price of oil is rising sharply after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for a truce and Tehran announced in response that it would not relax the conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
The November WTI futures contract rose by 4.17% to $96.26 per barrel, whilst the Brent futures contract for the same month gained 4% to $108.49. Natural gas is up 3 per cent, trading at €74.3 per megawatt hour on the TTF platform in Amsterdam.

Spread steady at 92 points, yield at 4.54%

The halt to the upward trend in bond yields at the start of the week has been confirmed. The yield spread between the benchmark 10-year BTp and the German government bond of the same maturity stands at 92 basis points, exactly the same as the previous reading. Similarly, the yield on the benchmark 10-year BTp remains unchanged at 4.54 per cent, the same as the previous day’s closing figure.

Tokyo closes down 0.7 per cent; profit-taking in tech and chip stocks

Japanese shares closed lower, erasing their morning gains. Weakness on the Nasdaq triggered profit-taking in semiconductor and technology shares – which had led last week’s rally – ahead of Micron Technology’s quarterly results, due on Wednesday. Rising global bond yields also weighed on shares, whilst the dollar strengthened to above 157.70 yen. The losses were led by technology and semiconductor shares, with the Nikkei 225 falling by 0.73% to 65,877.62 points.

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