Calabria a tempting prospect for Vannacci, who is also ready to take on Forza Italia

The election in Calabria could be the first major opportunity to gauge the party’s strength at the ballot box (and not just in the polls). Futuro Nazionale led by Roberto Vannacci could stand independently to win the parliamentary seat vacated by Forza Italia’s Francesco Cannizzaro, who was elected mayor of Reggio Calabria in June. The election will take place on 27 and 28 September (the constituency includes Reggio and municipalities as far as Villa San Giovanni), with the deadline for nominations – including those for Futuro Nazionale – falling on 24 August. The Calabrian by-elections are shaping up to be a significant electoral test.

So far, apart from the case of Vigevano – where the Futurists backed Furio Suvilla’s list, which, with 14 per cent of the vote, prevented the Lega from reaching the run-off – the ‘Vannacciani’ have never fielded a candidate of their own. So far, the party has been driven solely by its members (140,000, according to yesterday’s figures) and the polls. The latest polls put the party at around 7 per cent. Giving it a go and achieving a good result would, in any case, boost visibility. Within the party, however, there are also those who advocate caution, fearing that putting themselves forward now would be a pointless gamble. It would be better to rely solely on voting intentions – suggest the more cautious voices – and postpone the real test until the general election. All the more so because standing as a candidate and causing the centre-right candidate to lose risks having a boomerang effect.

Turning to the candidates, in Calabria many see Paolo Ferrara as the frontrunner in the race. President of UniReggio, a training organisation and university centre in Reggio Calabria, he makes no secret of his support and, on social media, comments on the ‘Vannacci phenomenon’ and posts videos featuring Domenico Furgiuele, MP and FnV’s Calabrian representative. Meanwhile, a party debate is scheduled for Thursday. The occasion is a meeting in Santa Trada, a coastal resort in Villa San Giovanni, attended by Furgiuele and Edoardo Ziello, FnV’s national head of organisation. Vannacci will not be attending; when asked, he confirmed that he is considering whether to take a stand and that he will announce his decision in due course. Just as he did a few days ago when he launched the candidacy of his fellow paratrooper, Carmelo Burgio, for mayor of Milan.

A potential FnV bid would threaten FI’s chances, as they are currently tipped to win. Not only because it is Cannizzaro’s seat that is up for replacement, but also because of the strong support base enjoyed by Berlusconi’s supporters in the region once led by Jole Santelli and now governed by Roberto Occhiuto, Tajani’s second-in-command within the party, although he is often described as a rival to Tajani. The ‘Azzurri’ have not yet officially announced a name, but the name of Fabio Roscioli is being bandied about persistently. As FI’s national treasurer and a lawyer for Fininvest, he enjoys the trust of the Berlusconi family. On the opposing side, the ‘broad coalition’ is aiming to field a joint candidate. Shortly, probably after mid-August, the national committee will meet with local leaders and representatives, who are expected to reach a decision. It is unlikely they will back Carmine Fotia, a native of Reggio Calabria and a journalist who, at the end of July, declared his willingness to stand, stating that he had the support of a section of the left.