Campari rallies, market rewards above-expected numbers and rising dividend
According to analysts, the results are 'very positive' and 'confirm the group's ability to defend profitability and outperform the market'
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Above-expected profitability, a reduction in debt, solid cash generation and a sharply rising dividend spurred purchases on Campari, which climbed back above EUR6 from the lows that had taken the shares back to late January levels. The stock posted a solid rise of more than 9%, after having not priced in the opening.
2025 revenues grew organically in line with consensus (net sales at 3bn, +2.4% organic -0.6% overall), while fourth-quarter organic sales growth (+4.7%) exceeded market expectations. Deutsche Bank (which has a hold rating on the stock with a €6.30 target, exceeded today's price), points out that the outperformance of organic growth estimates was driven by the Americas and the Emea (Europe, Middle East and Africa) region, while Apac (Asia Pacific) came in below consensus.
Among the major brands, Aperol +8%, Espolòn Tequila +4%. Grand Marnier +7% and SKYY Vodka +13% grew, while Wild Turkey Russell's Reserve and Campari remained stable, and Jamaican rums declined by 8% in Q4. Strong growth was also reported for fourth quarter organic ebit (+24.3%, versus consensus of +9.9%), while reported ebit for the quarter was 23.8% higher than consensus. Second-half earnings per share, Deutsche Bank said, were 16.7% above estimates. Net debt was 9.7% lower than consensus, bringing the net debt-to-ebitda ratio to 2.5 times. The company also raised its dividend to EUR 0.10 per share, up from EUR 0.065 last year.
For Intermonte, which has an outperform rating on the stock with a target price of €8, the results are "very positive" and "confirm Campari's ability to defend profitability and outperform the spirits market, particularly in the US, where sell-out figures (sales to final consumers) remain better than the sector". Looking ahead to 2026, management expects "organic growth and further market share gains", with a weaker first half and a better second half.
Analysts at Barclays (overweight with a target price of €8.70) say the 'results were well above expectations across the board'. Aperol's US launch is expected to be strengthened in 2026. "The 'fewer, bigger bets' strategy ('fewer, stronger brands') is paying off," the analysts say, pointing out that Campari "enters 2026 with a stronger financial structure". "We remain positive on the outlook for 2026," they conclude, "underpinned by an accelerated roll-out of Aperol in the US, aided by the entry of the new dedicated sales force.
