Campari celebrates better-than-expected results and an upward revision to its guidance

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Campari is celebrating better-than-expected results for the first half of the year and the upward revision of its guidance for the EBIT margin. The spirits company’s share price has thus risen to the top of the FTSE MIB. Specifically, the company released its results for the first six months of the year yesterday evening after markets had closed, showing net sales of 1.512 billion euros, above analysts’ estimates of €1.499 billion, down 1% on a total change basis but up 2.7% on an organic basis. This was influenced by a 2% change in scope, mainly attributable to the sale of Cinzano, and exchange rate effects, which accounted for 1.8%, primarily due to the US dollar. The Group’s adjusted net profit stood at 226 million, up by +4.7%, whilst the Group’s net profit stood at 129 million (-37.7%).

“Emerging markets recorded a better performance than that of the group, whilst all other geographical areas underperformed,” note Deutsche Bank analysts, who have a ‘Hold’ recommendation on the share and a target price of 6 euros. “By division, Agave, Cognac, Aperitifs and Local Brands outperformed the group average, whilst Whisky and Rum recorded a decline”, they continue, emphasising that “first-half earnings per share excceeded the consensus by 18.8%”.

The group has since updated its outlook for 2026, revising its organic adjusted EBIT margin upwards thanks to “a more favourable environment regarding tariffs”, according to Barclays. The expected negative impact of tariffs for the full year is now estimated at around €20 million, compared with the €30 million previously forecast. Management, the analysts explain, “has avoided fuelling excessive expectations regarding the benefits. Despite the margin’s better-than-expected performance in the first half of the year, it reiterated that the underlying outlook for the full-year gross margin remains unchanged, emphasising that the first half benefited from temporary factors linked to the timing of certain effects”.

The expectation of achieving organic revenue growth of around 3%, outperforming the sector, has been confirmed. “Overall, we believe that the first-half results represent a positive update. The improvement in margins also reflects benefits linked to tariffs and temporary factors relating to the timing of costs and revenues, whilst the second half of the year will still need to demonstrate its ability to maintain this performance against a more challenging year-on-year comparison and persistent weakness in US consumer spending,” the experts continue.

Barclays, however, say they are “confident that Campari’s improvement will continue, thanks to a more effective execution of its strategy, new formats that are creating further opportunities for consumption, and the momentum in the on-premise channel in the United States, which is translating into faster sales growth”. Analysts at the British bank have slightly reduced their forecasts for 2026, now expecting organic sales growth of 3.5 per cent, compared with the 3.7 per cent previously estimated, whilst operating profit growth is now forecast at 6 per cent, down from the previous 7.4 per cent. Against this backdrop, whilst maintaining their ‘Overweight’ recommendation, they have raised the target price to €8.1 from the previous €8.