Canada, Mark Carney wins in an anti-Trump vote

The Trump effect has been dramatic, measured by a turnaround in opinion polls rare in the country.

Only a few months ago the Liberals appeared destined for a bitter defeat and were struggling to reach 20% against the Conservatives' 44%. On the eve of the vote it was they who averaged 43% support, although declining from highs of 47% in the final sprint, against their opponents' 38%.

The rest of the support seemed to be divided between the French-speaking Quebec Bloc, the left-wing New Democratic Party, the Greens and some ultra-conservative formations.

The clash was tough: on the one hand, the commitment and experience of the 60-year-old Carney, new to politics but with a long career in finance and positions as governor of the Canadian Central Bank first and then the British Central Bank during the critical Brexit phase.

On the other, the 45-year-old Poilievre's call for change, in Canadian Trump tones. In just a few days of early voting, not surprisingly, new records have already been set: 7.3 million ballots, a quarter of the nearly 29 million eligible voters and a 25% increase over the previous election. Postal voting has also grown.

"Poilievre has no plan to stand up to Trump," Carney accused in one of the last rallies, giving expression to the anti-Maga militancy generated among voters of the White House provocations.

However, he also strengthened his centrist credentials, aware that he was nevertheless dealing with the economic malaise: he did away with an unpopular green tax on emissions, hitherto a Liberal qualifier, committing instead to an energy policy of promoting fossil fuels as much as renewables.

In order to claim the anti-Trump role, he also made quick trips among foreign allies, starting with the Europeans, aimed at consolidating 'reliable' economic relations that would compensate for the incoming frost from the southern border. 'It is time to choose change, the future,' Poilievre retorted.

His workhorses are fighting wasteful public spending and denouncing the cost of living and housing under the Liberals and promising, citing his own working-class origins as the son of teachers, to pay unprecedented attention to the neglected working class and ordinary voters. With fiery rhetoric he espouses slogans of law and order and fighting the woke, progressive values such as diversity and fairness.

He is a career politician but is characterised by criticism of the 'elites in Ottawa' (the capital) and calls for a Canada First policy. He can count on the influence of social media and right-wing online groups, such as Canada Proud, accused of disinformation, which found space after the ban on Facebook and Instagram news (the Feed service) due to Meta's failure to pay Canadian publishers on republished content. However, the similarities with Trump and his America First have complicated promises not to be too close to Trump's movement.

The Canadians' judgement of Trump appears stark. They have cancelled trips to the US en masse. YouGov polls show that 64% versus 25% now consider the US an enemy or at least a non-friendly country. 84% versus 11% reject the US president's idea of making Canada the 51st state in the Union. For good measure, if Canadians had voted in the US election last November, they would have voted for Kamala Harris against Trump with 57% against 18%.

Trump has certainly inflicted economic damage on his close ally. Bilateral trade is worth almost a trillion a year, 2.5 billion a day, and the US is by far Canada's largest trading partner, with integrated production and supply chains, from cars to energy. A flow now in shock due to Washington's tariffs: 25% on all imports, except for goods covered by the North American Free Trade Agreement, and dedicated tariffs also against automotive, steel and aluminium, and perhaps soon lumber.

Job suspensions have already been triggered for thousands of employees. Enough to ensure that the vote became not only a choice between Carney and Poilievre but also, and above all, a referendum on the unwieldy neighbour, Trump.