Cancer, declining EU mortality and positive data for lung in women: estimates for 2026
Forecasts published in Annals of Oncology and coordinated by the Università Statale di Milano show a reversal of the trend: after more than 25 years of increase, lung cancer mortality rates among women in EU countries show a stabilising trend with approximately -5% over the three-year period 2020-2022
According to new estimates, around 1,230,000 cancer deaths will occur in the European Union in 2026, with a mortality rate of 114 per 100,000 men (-7.8% compared to 2020-2022) and 74.7 per 100,000 women (-5.9%). Forecasts are positive, particularly for lung cancer in women, with mortality rates stabilising at around 12.5 deaths per 100,000 (-5% compared to 2020-2022). The results of the study estimating cancer mortality rates in the EU and the UK for 2026, coordinated by the State University of Milan in collaboration with the University of Bologna and the University of Parma and supported by the Airc Foundation for Cancer Research, were published in the Annals of Oncology. After more than 25 years of increase, lung cancer mortality rates among women in European Union (EU) countries are now showing a stabilising trend, while in the UK such favourable trends have been observed for several years, although overall female mortality levels are still higher than the EU average.
The study
The researchers, co-ordinated by Professor Carlo La Vecchia, Professor of Medical Statistics and Epidemiology at the State University of Milan, and Professor Eva Negri, Professor of Environmental Epidemiology and Occupational Medicine at the University of Bologna, analysed, for the sixteenth consecutive year, cancer mortality rates since 1970 considering the 27 EU Member States as a whole and, separately, the United Kingdom, using data from the World Health Organisation and United Nations databases. For each country and for both sexes, the following types of cancer were examined: stomach, colorectal, pancreas, lung, breast, uterus (including cervix), ovary, prostate, bladder and leukaemia, with a particular focus on lung cancer.
The focus on the lung
For the latter, the improvement in women will affect women up to 64 years of age, while in the older age groups mortality rates are still increasing.
"Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in both sexes in the EU. Mortality rates continue to decline among men, while remaining almost double those observed in women in 2026. This trend is consistent with historical differences in tobacco consumption behaviour between men and women,' said Claudia Santucci, researcher at the State University of Milan and first author of the article. In most of the countries considered, previous upward trends among women seem to be stabilising, with the exception of Spain. In the US and the UK, women started smoking earlier than European women, but also quit earlier. Currently, smoking prevalence in both sexes is less than 10% in the US and the UK, while it remains higher in the EU. In particular, Spanish and French women started smoking later than those in other EU countries, but also quit later. The same is true for Italian women, but they have always smoked less'.
