Tariff effect

Leap in Chinese exports to Asia and Europe (+8.1%), sharp decline to the US (-21%)

China's trade surplus with the US shrank to $20.46 billion in April from $27.58 billion in March. On a year-on-year basis, exports fell more than 21% and imports almost 14%.

9 May 2025

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Merci nel porto cinede di Shenzhen, provincia di Guangdong, Cina (Reuters)

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The figure from the General Administration of Customs will certainly not please President Xi Jinping busy in Moscow at the Red Square parade for the 80th anniversary of the victory over the Nazi-fascists. While looking ahead to the talks between America and China led by He Lifeng over the weekend in Switzerland, the April import-export figures leave no room for doubt.

Maxi-dazi effect

Chinese exports grew 8.1% year-on-year in April 2025, well above consensus expectations (+1.9%), marking the 12th consecutive month of improvement. The pace slowed from the +12.4% recorded in March, due to the 124% tariffs introduced by the Trump administration.

Dazi: in settimana incontro Usa-Cina in Svizzera

China's exports to the US fall (-21%)

In fact, Chinese exports to the US fell more than 21% year-on-year, while imports shrank by almost 14%. Part of the rebound in overall exports could be attributed to transit via third countries and contracts signed before the announcement of the new tariffs, said Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management, who expects trade data to weaken gradually in the coming months.

Import Contained Flexion

Imports, on the other hand, fell by 0.2 %, a smaller decrease than the -4.3 % drop in March and better than analysts' expectations (-5.9 %).

Imports from the EU fell sharply (-16.5%), however, customs reveal that Chinese exports to Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) countries rose 20.8% in April, accelerating from 11.6% in March. Imports grew by 2.5%. To the European Union, on the other hand, exports rose by 8.3%, while imports fell by 16.5%.

The weight of the trade balance

This trend, which contradicts that of last year by stopping the growth of the trade imbalance, is linked to the monstrous duties on which the US delegation is working to reduce tariffs by at least half.

As is well known, China responded with a preventive liquidity injection from the Central Bank and a rate cut, but the talks in Switzerland will be particularly complex.

Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick reiterated that the goal is de-escalation and that the Chinese delegation also shares this intent.

The US is targeting Chinese rare earths currently firmly in Beijing's vault, to be counterbalanced with a 60% tariff cut that will not be enough to stop the chain reaction already triggered. The reciprocal duties are so high that they have in fact already blocked the flow of goods in the worst way.