China, record trade surplus, over USD 1 trillion. Export +5.9%
Chinese exports rebounded after earlier declines
Chinese exports rebounded beyond expectations in November, accelerating with shipments following the late October trade truce reached by Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump: +5.9% year-on-year, up from -1.1% in October (the first decline since March 2024, a figure revised downward from the preliminary -0.8%), According to China Customs, imports instead stood at just +1.9% (against expectations of +2.8%), from +1% in October, despite Beijing renewing commitments on increased overseas purchases to balance trade with partners.
China's rising trade surplus will help bolster growth in 2025, ING economists say, noting that the country's surplus surpassed the $1 trillion mark in the first 11 months of the year. This is a 22.1 per cent increase from 2024, writes economist Lynn Song.
US-China trade imbalances put world economy at risk
The trade agreement
Chinese producers, in particular, breathed a sigh of relief after Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump signed a truce on trade at their meeting in South Korea in late October on the sidelines of the Apec forum. The two sides agreed to reduce tariffs on each other's products, export controls on essential minerals and advanced technologies, with Beijing committing to buy more US soybeans and work with Washington to crack down on fentanyl flows. After the truce, US taxes on Chinese products remain around 47.5%, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Beijing's tariffs on US imports stand at around 32%. The latest data on China's manufacturing sector showed activity declining for the eighth month in November, with new orders continuing to contract. The strengthening of the yuan in recent weeks, however, does not seem to have slowed the flow of exports: the offshore yuan has strengthened by almost 5% since April, reaching 7.0669 today.
Export to the US falls again, -28.6% in November
China's exports to the United States continue to decline, despite the trade truce signed in South Korea at the end of October by Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump: shipments contracted by 28.6 per cent year-on-year to USD 33.8 billion in November. According to Chinese Customs data, Beijing had exported 47.3 billion to the US in November 2024.
